Next French Presidential Election Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarket Skip to main content (https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election#__pm_main) Elections (https://polymarket.com/dashboards/global-elections)·Global Elections (https://polymarket.com/predictions/global-elections) Next French Presidential Election Jordan Bardella 27% Édouard Philippe 17% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13% Gabriel Attal 6.5% $92,070,694 Vol. 1H 1D 1W 1M Max $92,070,694 Vol. Apr 30, 2027 1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL Jordan Bardella $1,015,817 Vol. 27% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % Buy Yes 27¢Buy No 74¢ Édouard Philippe $832,292 Vol. 17% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % Buy Yes 17¢Buy No 84¢ Jean-Luc Mélenchon $664,898 Vol. 13% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % Buy Yes 13¢Buy No 88¢ Gabriel Attal $1,539,877 Vol. 6% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % Buy Yes 6.5¢Buy No 93.6¢ Marine Le Pen $653,175 Vol. 6% Buy Yes 6¢Buy No 95¢ Dominique de Villepin $1,323,506 Vol. 4% Buy Yes 4.4¢Buy No 95.7¢ François Hollande $1,126,154 Vol. 3% Buy Yes 3.5¢Buy No 96.6¢ David Lisnard $1,307,436 Vol. 3% Buy Yes 3.2¢Buy No 96.9¢ Bruno Retailleau $1,504,036 Vol. 3% Buy Yes 3.1¢Buy No 97.0¢ Raphaël Glucksmann $1,069,507 Vol. 3% Buy Yes 2.8¢Buy No 97.3¢ Sarah Knafo $1,392,259 Vol. 2% Buy Yes 2.1¢Buy No 98.0¢ Éric Zemmour $1,611,787 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 1.1¢Buy No 99.0¢ Sébastien Lecornu $1,033,457 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 1.1¢Buy No 99.0¢ Jean Castex $829,475 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.9¢Buy No 99.2¢ Laurent Wauquiez $2,634,211 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.8¢Buy No 99.3¢ Juan Branco $1,452,050 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.8¢Buy No 99.3¢ Bernard Cazeneuve $1,543,139 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.8¢Buy No 99.3¢ Fabien Roussel $3,034,797 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ François Asselineau $4,662,450 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Nicolas Dupont-Aignan $3,518,662 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Valérie Pécresse $3,214,676 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Élisabeth Borne $4,391,112 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Carole Delga $3,649,863 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Manuel Bompard $3,853,936 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Xavier Bertrand $4,258,011 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ François Ruffin $2,279,513 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Marine Tondelier $2,724,755 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Olivier Faure $4,145,809 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Ségolène Royal $4,087,373 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Clémentine Autain $3,686,263 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Michel Barnier $4,077,628 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ François Bayrou $4,572,732 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Yaël Braun-Pivet $4,679,460 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Gérald Darmanin $1,133,040 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Mathilde Panot $5,136,586 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.7¢Buy No 99.4¢ Clémence Guetté $3,431,045 Vol. 1% Buy Yes 0.6¢Buy No 99.5¢ The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Traders have positioned Jordan Bardella as the leading contender in the next French presidential election, consistent with the National Rally's sustained strength in recent legislative and European contests driven by voter priorities on immigration, security, and economic conditions. Édouard Philippe ranks second, drawing from his prior government role and centrist appeal that could consolidate moderate support. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's share reflects ongoing left-wing fragmentation, while lower probabilities for figures such as Gabriel Attal and Marine Le Pen indicate limited immediate consolidation around other established names. With a wide field and no dominant candidate, the current pricing underscores uncertainty over coalition dynamics, primary processes, and potential late shifts ahead of the 2027 ballot. Rules Market Context The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/). Market Opened:Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET Volume $92,070,694 End Date Apr 30, 2027 Market Opened Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET Resolver 0x2F5e3684c... (https://polygonscan.com/address/0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d) Propose resolution (https://oracle.uma.xyz/propose?project=Polymarket&transactionHash=0x45fdfd7b3a2807b6fb671fe02b307c483e3858c791e9de8abdd3b7be480bf6c4&eventIndex=7) The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.... Show more Traders have positioned Jordan Bardella as the leading contender in the next French presidential election, consistent with the National Rally's sustained strength in recent legislative and European contests driven by voter priorities on immigration, security, and economic conditions. Édouard Philippe ranks second, drawing from his prior government role and centrist appeal that could consolidate moderate support. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's share reflects ongoing left-wing fragmentation, while lower probabilities for figures such as Gabriel Attal and Marine Le Pen indicate limited immediate consolidation around other established names. With a wide field and no dominant candidate, the current pricing underscores uncertainty over coalition dynamics, primary processes, and potential late shifts ahead of the 2027 ballot. Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated Jun 5, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC Apr 29 2026 Paris appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2% The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices. https://apnews.com/article/marine-le-pen-trial-presidential-election-france-7648655db3ec0db4cd8f70024382a3ff Jan 14 2026 Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, putting 2027 presidential bid at risk Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7% Marine Le Pen began her appeal trial against a conviction for misusing EU funds, with the outcome potentially barring her from running in the 2027 presidential election. This legal uncertainty led to a decline in her market price and increased interest in her protege Jordan Bardella as a possible replacement candidate. https://apnews.com/article/marine-le-pen-appeal-trial-paris-1f06183468c669d99093634ba7472c72 Jan 14 2026 Jordan Bardella criticizes Trump’s Greenland policy, signaling political distancing Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%5% Jordan Bardella publicly denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to Greenland, calling it 'commercial blackmail' and warning against subjugation. This move indicated Bardella’s effort to assert an independent nationalist stance, which helped maintain his market support amid Le Pen’s legal troubles. https://apnews.com/article/trump-greenland-europe-far-right-maga-c6b44e151d81e990129c2d58ab0ee192 Jan 7 2026 Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, threatening her 2027 presidential bid Marine Le Pen drops to 7%9% Marine Le Pen appeared in court to appeal her conviction for misusing EU funds, with a potential ban from holding office that could prevent her from running in 2027. This legal uncertainty caused her market price to drop sharply, while Jordan Bardella's price rose as he was seen as the likely successor. https://apnews.com/article/marine-le-pen-appeal-trial-paris-1f06183468c669d99093634ba7472c72 Jan 1 2026 Jordan Bardella distances himself from Trump over Greenland tariff dispute Jordan Bardella drops to 26%5% Jordan Bardella criticized U.S. President Trump's Greenland tariff threats, signaling a shift in his stance and possibly affecting his support among nationalist voters, reflected in minor price fluctuations. https://apnews.com/article/trump-greenland-europe-far-right-maga-c6b44e151d81e990129c2d58ab0ee192 Nov 14 2025 Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins in Paris over EU funds misuse Marine Le Pen drops to 11%5% Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opened, raising questions about her eligibility for the 2027 presidential race. The trial's outcome could bar her from running, causing market uncertainty and impacting her and Jordan Bardella's prices. https://apnews.com/article/marine-le-pen-appeal-trial-paris-1f06183468c669d99093634ba7472c72 Show all Comments(543) Top Holders Positions Activity Post Beware of external links. Newest Holders Beware of external links. https://polymarket.com/profile/0xa0a512abaed61989805d549fdd0838c184d556ef paulenskate (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xa0a512abaed61989805d549fdd0838c184d556ef) 7.3K David Lisnard 1d ago Lisnard sûrement pas président mais au dessus de 3% ça c’est certain🤑🤑 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0xc7b6e781a144c3ec8f64189f74c2423cad6e3158 beansontoasts (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xc7b6e781a144c3ec8f64189f74c2423cad6e3158) 950 Édouard Philippe 4d ago Ok let me help you: Bardella is first in the polls so he will be in the second tour, which means 40-60% depending on how he does during the debates. 0 1 Replies https://polymarket.com/profile/0x79c7c7131321d66d24d31b6982b46f6f2ca278a6 john-difool (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x79c7c7131321d66d24d31b6982b46f6f2ca278a6) 140.5K Dominique de Villepin 3d ago @beansontoast... (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xc7b6e781a144c3ec8f64189f74c2423cad6e3158) No... 1 https://polymarket.com/profile/0xd45ca3fb0920437f6e01b0d6a0b7859470567c6a KolevStefan2003 (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xd45ca3fb0920437f6e01b0d6a0b7859470567c6a) 4d ago I live in France, and I’m convinced that Mélenchon will win. People are exhausted by the lies told by the pseudo-socialists and the center over the last few decades. Meanwhile, Bardella is often viewed as too young and inexperienced to lead. Because the right, the center, and the 'pseudo-left' are perceived as too sloppy to win, they have inadvertently made Mélenchon appear to be the only viable option for a shift toward a fairer system, one with a social program focused on helping the poorest and ending concessions to the wealthy. Read more 2 5 Replies https://polymarket.com/profile/0x18bc2ff4855319159cdf6fd3d15bd1b00da2def6 Igamblenow (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x18bc2ff4855319159cdf6fd3d15bd1b00da2def6) 6 Édouard Philippe 4d ago The stable candidate for the system always wins 1 1 Replies https://polymarket.com/profile/0x79c7c7131321d66d24d31b6982b46f6f2ca278a6 john-difool (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x79c7c7131321d66d24d31b6982b46f6f2ca278a6) 140.5K Dominique de Villepin 3d ago @Igamblenow (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x18bc2ff4855319159cdf6fd3d15bd1b00da2def6) And for this time it's Dominique de Villepin. 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0xc7e53ac4a7c76d6df8b794de2e7d0794265d2d3a LiquidatedDegen (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xc7e53ac4a7c76d6df8b794de2e7d0794265d2d3a) 40.0K Bruno Retailleau 5d ago nidrac2 hit me on X I wanna chat. 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x141bbb3c8c1414aa1696d301c163d3317661749a monkeydd- (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x141bbb3c8c1414aa1696d301c163d3317661749a) 5d ago interesting market 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x5f5eda732bf14e2516d617f427d48a288445a628 arghhhh (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x5f5eda732bf14e2516d617f427d48a288445a628) 3.3K Marine Le Pen 5d ago Smart fellows bet on Lepen. 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x87a0fad111a51b32f89759b8fdd20633b50203ad xarakmar (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x87a0fad111a51b32f89759b8fdd20633b50203ad) 5d ago 12% à se faire sur la gueule de ce gros communiste de merde de Mélanchon. Mélanchon is the new livret A 2 1 Replies https://polymarket.com/profile/0x7741c172687d12c4d8ebd463604e9a6afa667817 Loris (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x7741c172687d12c4d8ebd463604e9a6afa667817) 111 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 2d ago @xarakmar (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x87a0fad111a51b32f89759b8fdd20633b50203ad) mdr i'm in 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x850f75befceb3fc03f69a35526ed1edd27c9e8d5 Faurisson (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x850f75befceb3fc03f69a35526ed1edd27c9e8d5) 544 Jean-Luc Mélenchon 5d ago Bardella skyrocket because of PSG chimps ? 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0xc98e5a80eefada49e960e65a5486f8cb65eaf0e7 caprice1 (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xc98e5a80eefada49e960e65a5486f8cb65eaf0e7) 776 Sébastien Lecornu 11d ago Branco, the guy who cries for a world wide criminal conspiracy against him because he got a bronchitis ? 0 Show more comments Frequently Asked Questions What is the "Next French Presidential Election" prediction market? "Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 27%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution. How much trading activity has "Next French Presidential Election" generated on Polymarket? As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $92.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page. How do I trade on "Next French Presidential Election"? To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss. What are the current odds for "Next French Presidential Election"? The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Jordan Bardella" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges. How will "Next French Presidential Election" be resolved? The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled. Can I follow "Next French Presidential Election" without placing a trade? Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Next French Presidential Election." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen. Why are Polymarket's odds for "Next French Presidential Election" considered reliable? Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $92.1 million traded on “Next French Presidential Election,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page (https://polymarket.com/accuracy) on Polymarket. How do I start trading on "Next French Presidential Election"? To place your first trade on "Next French Presidential Election," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works. What does a price of 27¢ for "Jordan Bardella" mean? On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 27¢ for "Jordan Bardella" in the "Next French Presidential Election" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 27% chance that "Jordan Bardella" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 27¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 73¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0. When does the "Next French Presidential Election" market close? The "Next French Presidential Election" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 30, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page. What are traders saying about "Next French Presidential Election"? The "Next French Presidential Election" market has an active community of 543 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades. What is Polymarket? Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Next French Presidential Election." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys. View more Next French Presidential Election Jordan Bardella·Yes Buy Sell Market Yes No Amount $ • $1+$5+$10+$100 T r a d e By trading, you agree to the Terms of Use (https://polymarket.com/tos). Related All Politics Global Elections World France Brazil Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? 78% (https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election-who-will-advance-to-the-2nd-round)Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? 93% (https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot)Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? 99% (https://polymarket.com/event/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-run-in-2026)