Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarket Skip to main content (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027#__pm_main) Note on Middle East Markets:The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not. Note on Middle East Markets Geopolitics (https://polymarket.com/geopolitics)·Middle East (https://polymarket.com/predictions/middle-east) Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? PastDec 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % $33,829,442 Vol. 1H 1D 1W 1M Max $33,829,442 Vol. Dec 31, 2026 1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL Order Book This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran beginning February 28, 2026, under Operation Epic Fury, targeted leadership, nuclear sites, and military infrastructure but stopped short of sustained ground operations or regime occupation, ending in a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by early April. Ongoing diplomatic talks through May 2026, including proposals for nuclear restraints and Strait of Hormuz access, reflect a pivot toward negotiated outcomes rather than escalation to full-scale invasion. High logistical and casualty risks associated with occupying a large territory, combined with U.S. force deployments focused on air and naval superiority, have reinforced trader consensus against an invasion before 2027. No major new military buildup or official statements signaling ground commitment have emerged since the ceasefire. Rules Market Context This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources. Market Opened:Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET Volume $33,829,442 End Date Dec 31, 2026 Market Opened Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET Resolver 0x65070BE91... (https://polygonscan.com/address/0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7) Propose resolution (https://oracle.uma.xyz/propose?project=Polymarket&transactionHash=0x901fefd6ac1aa7740e4f306d4773d2738a2c4638298172e1b7d711ddd7f34ad1&eventIndex=34) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources. Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran beginning February 28, 2026, under Operation Epic Fury, targeted leadership, nuclear sites, and military infrastructure but stopped short of sustained ground operations or regime occupation, ending in a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by early April. Ongoing diplomatic talks through May 2026, including proposals for nuclear restraints and Strait of Hormuz access, reflect a pivot toward negotiated outcomes rather than escalation to full-scale invasion. High logistical and casualty risks associated with occupying a large territory, combined with U.S. force deployments focused on air and naval superiority, have reinforced trader consensus against an invasion before 2027. No major new military buildup or official statements signaling ground commitment have emerged since the ceasefire. Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated Jun 5, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC Comments(830) Top Holders Positions Activity Post Beware of external links. Newest Holders Beware of external links. https://polymarket.com/profile/0xe9582ac5e2d22a771ed84adc12c8df30a8b166b7 RogerFed (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xe9582ac5e2d22a771ed84adc12c8df30a8b166b7) 15h ago Good game guys, i'm out. Watching NBA finals with Donald 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x1ac59e46925b1cfc8ed070016c2c7a3ddd27f35c Neighboring-Chas... (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x1ac59e46925b1cfc8ed070016c2c7a3ddd27f35c) 1.5K Yes 4d ago I am crying . Trump -paper tiger has broken my heart. He gave up, but we will never give up 💪 1 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x5f9bf468de34cd26ff4a5d56783bb20de5ae3abb DoctorEngineer (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x5f9bf468de34cd26ff4a5d56783bb20de5ae3abb) 4.7K Yes 8d ago Who could have guessed this.... 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0xfba94b679800b8dcc19e98257b0fa4a29990cb2c psikikiii (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xfba94b679800b8dcc19e98257b0fa4a29990cb2c) 729 Yes 9d ago When no invade? 🤦‍♂️ 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x1ac59e46925b1cfc8ed070016c2c7a3ddd27f35c Neighboring-Chas... (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x1ac59e46925b1cfc8ed070016c2c7a3ddd27f35c) 1.5K Yes 9d ago Where is war? Where is peace? Where is red president? Is he waiting for oil or uranium from Persian? Donald go home from Persian gulf ! 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0xe3bdd36e2aaddb6838fd4a8ed8300821de125d76 moonsol- (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xe3bdd36e2aaddb6838fd4a8ed8300821de125d76) 10d ago the news this week alone should give the yestards pause.. add Ten poly to that and I'm firmly on the other side 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9ec7ab65b11803e1bea2c22202535ab845609a5c SqMoneyHunter (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9ec7ab65b11803e1bea2c22202535ab845609a5c) 1.3K Yes 11d ago Ok seems like war begun. Strange how this still low 8 2 Replies https://polymarket.com/profile/0xcf203cee927a63d6188427b993fa78b430c73b9e Prof.Money-Exter... (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xcf203cee927a63d6188427b993fa78b430c73b9e) 10d ago @SqMoneyHunte... (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9ec7ab65b11803e1bea2c22202535ab845609a5c) What do you mean? 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9ec7ab65b11803e1bea2c22202535ab845609a5c SqMoneyHunter (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9ec7ab65b11803e1bea2c22202535ab845609a5c) 1.3K Yes 10d ago @Prof.Money-E... (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xcf203cee927a63d6188427b993fa78b430c73b9e) 👇 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0xe7ec1224a01d96d86021eb630c76376b57e79dda AmericaOnly (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xe7ec1224a01d96d86021eb630c76376b57e79dda) 933 Yes 11d ago 2 IRGC boats hit byt US jets just now. 4 sailors killed. Seeing reports of US attack at Bandar Abbas 1 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x1ac59e46925b1cfc8ed070016c2c7a3ddd27f35c Neighboring-Chas... (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x1ac59e46925b1cfc8ed070016c2c7a3ddd27f35c) 1.5K Yes 11d ago Orange fox where is agreement? We need peace 0 1 Replies https://polymarket.com/profile/0xfba94b679800b8dcc19e98257b0fa4a29990cb2c psikikiii (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xfba94b679800b8dcc19e98257b0fa4a29990cb2c) 729 Yes 11d ago @Neighboring-... (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x1ac59e46925b1cfc8ed070016c2c7a3ddd27f35c) Orangutang 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0xfba94b679800b8dcc19e98257b0fa4a29990cb2c psikikiii (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xfba94b679800b8dcc19e98257b0fa4a29990cb2c) 729 Yes 12d ago LOL 0 Show more comments Frequently Asked Questions What is the "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" prediction market? "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 16% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 16¢, the market collectively assigns a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution. How much trading activity has "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" generated on Polymarket? As of today, "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" has generated $33.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page. How do I trade on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"? To trade on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss. What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"? The current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" is 16% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen. How will "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" be resolved? The resolution rules for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled. Can I follow "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" without placing a trade? Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen. Why are Polymarket's odds for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" considered reliable? Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $33.8 million traded on “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page (https://polymarket.com/accuracy) on Polymarket. How do I start trading on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"? To place your first trade on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works. What does a price of 16¢ for "Yes" mean? On Polymarket, the price of "Yes" or "No" represents the market's implied probability. A "Yes" price of 16¢ for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" means traders collectively believe there is a 16% chance this event will happen. If you buy "Yes" at 16¢ and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 84¢ per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0. When does the "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" market close? The "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page. What are traders saying about "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"? The "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" market has an active community of 830 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades. What is Polymarket? Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys. View more Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes Buy Sell Market Yes No Amount $ • $1+$5+$10+$100 T r a d e By trading, you agree to the Terms of Use (https://polymarket.com/tos). Related All Geopolitics Politics World Israel Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? 23% (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026)Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? 8% (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025)Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? 3% (https://polymarket.com/event/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027)