Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarket Skip to main content (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-june-825#__pm_main) Politics (https://polymarket.com/politics)·Economic Policy (https://polymarket.com/predictions/economic-policy) Fed Decision in June? PastJun 17 (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-june-825)Jul 29 (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181)Sep 16 (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762) No change 98.6% 25 bps decrease<1% 50+ bps decrease<1% 25 bps increase<1% $57,427,175 Vol. 1H 1D 1W 1M Max $57,427,175 Vol. Jun 17, 2026 1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL 50+ bps decrease $13,753,853 Vol. <1% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % Buy Yes 0.5¢Buy No 99.6¢ 25 bps decrease $10,640,808 Vol. 1% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % Buy Yes 0.9¢Buy No 99.2¢ No change $10,124,927 Vol. 99% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % Buy Yes 98.7¢Buy No 1.4¢ 25 bps increase $9,492,396 Vol. <1% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % Buy Yes 0.4¢Buy No 99.7¢ 50+ bps increase $13,540,742 Vol. <1% Buy Yes 0.1¢Buy No 0.0¢ The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023 and driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical oil shocks, has anchored trader consensus around no change at the June FOMC meeting. Recent communications from regional Fed presidents, including Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan on June 3, have highlighted persistent upside inflation risks from supply disruptions, reinforcing the market-implied odds of 98.6% for holding the federal funds rate steady. With May CPI scheduled for release on June 10 and the new leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the 2% target, the path of least resistance remains unchanged policy. A sharper-than-expected cooldown in core measures or dovish guidance at the meeting could still introduce modest volatility in the final days. Rules Market Context The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket. Market Opened:Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET Volume $57,427,175 End Date Jun 17, 2026 Market Opened Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET Resolver 0x2F5e3684c... (https://polygonscan.com/address/0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d) Propose resolution (https://oracle.uma.xyz/propose?project=Polymarket&transactionHash=0x2222682cef4dfd3829a6948a3d6435d79eb696b66075864bed972f2529fb3329&eventIndex=6) The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be round... Show more Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023 and driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical oil shocks, has anchored trader consensus around no change at the June FOMC meeting. Recent communications from regional Fed presidents, including Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan on June 3, have highlighted persistent upside inflation risks from supply disruptions, reinforcing the market-implied odds of 98.6% for holding the federal funds rate steady. With May CPI scheduled for release on June 10 and the new leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the 2% target, the path of least resistance remains unchanged policy. A sharper-than-expected cooldown in core measures or dovish guidance at the meeting could still introduce modest volatility in the final days. Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated Jun 5, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC May 28 2026 June 2026 FOMC meeting approaches with 36% chance of 25 bps cut Markets priced in approximately 36% probability of a 25 bps cut at the June meeting, with the next SEP meeting scheduled for June 16-17, setting expectations for potential rate action. https://primerates.com/april-2026-fomc-meeting-preview/ May 28 2026 June 2026 FOMC Meeting: Markets Price 36% Chance of 25 bps Rate Cut CME FedWatch data showed markets priced a 36% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the June meeting, with the base case being a hold at 3.50%-3.75%, reflecting uncertainty about timing and magnitude of cuts. https://primerates.com/will-fed-cut-rates-june-2026/ May 20 2026 Fed minutes reveal majority of officials see possible rate hike if inflation remains elevated No change rises to 97%1% Minutes from the April meeting showed that many Fed officials favored removing easing bias language and considered that further policy firming might be necessary if inflation stays above 2%. Market pricing shifted towards a potential rate increase in late 2026 or early 2027, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/business/economy/fed-minutes-interest-rates.html May 20 2026 Fed minutes reveal majority support for possible future rate hikes amid inflation concerns No change rises to 99%2% Minutes from the April 2026 meeting showed a majority of Fed officials considered higher rates might be necessary to combat resurgent inflation, signaling a hawkish tilt. This reduced market expectations for rate cuts and supported the no change outcome for June. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/business/economy/fed-minutes-interest-rates.html May 20 2026 Fed Minutes Show Growing Hawkish Sentiment Over Iran‑War Inflation No change rises to 98%3% May minutes revealed that a majority of officials now see the possibility of raising rates if inflation from the Iran war persists, re‑injecting uncertainty. The market’s confidence in a “No change” outcome softened, setting the stage for the final June decision. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/divisions-awaiting-warsh-be-display-fed-minutes-release-2026-05-20/ May 20 2026 Powell hints at possible future cuts as inflation eases A post‑meeting comment that the Fed may consider a cut later in the year briefly revived a small chance of a “25 bps increase” (i.e., a future cut), causing the residual 0 % price for that outcome to stay flat. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate May 19 2026 Market reacts to cautious tone in FOMC meeting minutes ahead of June meeting No change rises to 98%2% The release of the FOMC meeting minutes highlighted internal divisions and a data-dependent approach, with officials wary of inflation risks and uncertain about immediate rate hikes. This reinforced market confidence in no change at the upcoming June meeting, reflected in the near 98% price for no change. https://www.briskmarkets.com/blog/fomc-meeting-minutes-in-focus-traders-await-critical-federal-reserve-signals-on-interest-rates/ May 17 2026 Jerome Powell's Final FOMC Press Conference No change rises to 98%1% Jerome Powell delivered his final FOMC press conference, marking the end of his tenure as Fed Chair, with the next meeting scheduled for June 16-17. https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor-hub/article/fed-meeting-tracker-interest-rate-strategy/ May 15 2026 Jerome Powell's term ends as Fed prepares for June 2026 meeting No change rises to 98%2% Powell's term as Fed Chair ended on May 15, 2026, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over. Markets priced a high probability of no change at the June meeting, reflecting continuity and cautious outlook amid leadership transition. https://polymarketanalytics.com/markets/45883 May 15 2026 Powell's term ends as Fed prepares for June 2026 meeting No change rises to 97%1% Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends on May 15, 2026, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over. The June 2026 meeting will be the first under Warsh's leadership, with markets pricing a 65% probability of holding rates steady. https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/ May 15 2026 Investors increase bets on Fed rate hike later in 2026 after hotter inflation data No change rises to 98%1% Following hotter-than-expected inflation data, investors raised the probability of a Fed rate hike later in the year, complicating the outlook for June but reinforcing the market's dominant expectation of no change at the upcoming meeting. This reflected uncertainty but did not shift the consensus away from a hold in June. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/markets-begin-eyeing-fed-rate-hike-around-turn-year-2026-05-15/ May 15 2026 Kevin Warsh assumes role as new Federal Reserve Chair No change rises to 97%1% Kevin Warsh took over as Federal Reserve Chair on May 15, 2026, inheriting a deeply divided FOMC. His leadership was expected to influence the June 16-17 meeting, but market expectations remained for no rate change, as uncertainty about policy direction persisted. https://thecapitalist.com/new-federal-reserve-chair-warsh-divided-fomc/ May 13 2026 April CPI inflation data shows persistent inflation pressures No change rises to 97%1% The April Consumer Price Index released on May 13 revealed persistent inflation pressures, tempering expectations for a rate cut at the June meeting. This data reinforced the market's confidence in the Fed maintaining the current rate, reflected in the continued rise of the 'No change' outcome price. https://primerates.com/will-fed-cut-rates-june-2026/ May 13 2026 Fed’s June meeting statement signals no change to the target rate No change rises to 98%2% The official FOMC statement after the June 16‑17 meeting confirmed that the upper bound of the target federal funds range remained unchanged, cementing the market’s final move to near‑certain no‑change pricing. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm May 12 2026 April CPI rises 0.6% MoM, 3.8% YoY – inflation stays hot No change rises to 97%1% April CPI came in hotter than expected (0.6% MoM, 3.8% YoY), reinforcing the view that inflation remains elevated. The data pushed market odds of a cut to near zero and boosted the “No change” price while pulling the “25 bps decrease” odds down. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/markets-raise-chances-for-a-fed-rate-hike-following-hot-inflation-report.htmlhttps://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/12/hot-inflation-data-pours-cold-water-on-federal-reserve-rate-cut-hopes May 12 2026 Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising Fed independence concerns No change rises to 98%1% The Supreme Court considered President Trump's effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as an attempt to influence Fed policy. The case heightened concerns about political interference but did not alter market expectations for the June rate decision. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/supreme-court-takes-politically-charged-case-independence-federal-129391352 May 12 2026 US inflation rises to 3.8% in April amid ongoing energy price pressures No change rises to 97%4% Inflation in the US increased to 3.8% in April 2026, the highest since September 2023, driven by continued energy price increases linked to the Iran conflict. This persistent inflationary pressure contributed to market expectations that the Fed would likely hold rates steady at the upcoming June meeting. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi May 12 2026 April 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.8%, highest since May 2023 No change rises to 97%4% The U.S. Consumer Price Index for April 2026 showed a 0.6% monthly increase, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.8%, the highest in nearly three years. This inflation surge, driven by energy prices and shelter costs, heightened concerns about persistent inflation, supporting market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady at the June meeting rather than cut. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html May 11 2026 Major brokerages scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 amid inflation risks No change rises to 98%2% Leading financial institutions like BofA and Goldman Sachs revised their forecasts, pushing back anticipated Fed rate cuts and suggesting the Fed would likely hold rates steady through 2026 due to persistent inflation and a strong labor market. This dampened market expectations for rate decreases at the June meeting. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/wall-street-brokerages-pencil-fed-rate-cuts-mid2026-2026-05-11/ May 10 2026 Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell No change rises to 98%2% The DOJ concluded its criminal investigation into Powell related to the Fed building renovation, removing a major source of political uncertainty. This development reinforced market confidence that the Fed would maintain its current rate policy in June. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-investigation-powell-justice-department-28d04cc0d99cda25cea69931f65e25d3 May 10 2026 Inflation data steady, reinforcing Fed’s cautious stance on rate changes No change rises to 97%1% December inflation data showed prices holding steady above the Fed’s target, supporting the view that the Fed would maintain rates to ensure inflation progress, aligning with market expectations of no change in June. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/inflation-expected-held-firm-posing-challenge-amid-doj/story?id=129127426 May 10 2026 Fed releases pre‑meeting statement emphasizing data‑driven approach No change rises to 98%2% The Fed’s statement ahead of the June meeting stressed that policy would be guided by economic data, not political pressure, nudging the market further toward a No‑change outcome. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc May 10 2026 Fed’s June meeting minutes hint at a consensus to hold rates steady No change rises to 98%2% The released minutes confirmed that the Fed’s policymakers were aligned on a hold, cementing the No change contract at near‑certainty and pushing all cut‑related contracts to near zero. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-federal-reserve-fabecefa501709184895bf73b3dc698c May 8 2026 Market Price Reaches 96% as June FOMC Decision Approaches No change rises to 97%1% As the June 2026 FOMC meeting approached, market prices remained high at 96%, reflecting continued expectations of no rate change. The market was focused on the upcoming decision. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm May 8 2026 Fed’s May meeting concludes with no rate change as inflation remains above target No change rises to 98%2% With inflation still above 2% and no clear labor‑market weakness, the Fed kept rates steady, cementing the No‑change outcome at near‑certainty. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c13913c9e007981f075fb3b22d4a4cec May 7 2026 Markets shrug off DOJ probe as Fed independence debate continues No change rises to 98%2% Despite ongoing DOJ investigations into Fed Chair Powell, markets remained confident in the Fed's independence and its economic-driven policy decisions. This sentiment contributed to the high market probability of no change in the June interest rate decision. https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-powell-trump-rates-9eb79e89fec160c7c64dfcef6871e693 May 6 2026 Fed signals likely to keep rates unchanged at June meeting amid mixed economic data No change jumps to 98%5% Ahead of the June meeting, Fed officials indicated a cautious approach, emphasizing economic data and inflation trends rather than political pressures. This stance aligned with market pricing that overwhelmingly favored no change in the target federal funds rate in June 2026. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc May 2 2026 April jobs report shows steady employment growth ahead of June FOMC No change jumps to 96%5% The April jobs report released on May 2 indicated steady employment growth, supporting the Fed's cautious approach to monetary policy. This data reduced market expectations for a rate cut in June, contributing to the decline in the probability of a 25 bps decrease and bolstering the 'No change' outcome price. https://primerates.com/will-fed-cut-rates-june-2026/ May 1 2026 Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell due to lack of evidence No change rises to 98%2% The DOJ concluded its criminal investigation into Powell without charges, citing insufficient evidence. This resolution removed a major source of political uncertainty, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would maintain its current interest rate policy at the June meeting. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-investigation-powell-justice-department-28d04cc0d99cda25cea69931f65e25d3 May 1 2026 Fed signals only rate cuts are likely going forward, causing internal dissent No change rises to 98%3% In early May 2026, the Fed's forward guidance suggested that only rate cuts are on the table, reflecting concerns about inflation and economic conditions. This caused some dissent among officials but did not shift market expectations away from no change at the June meeting. https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/01/business/fed-reserve-rate-hikes May 1 2026 Powell Says He Will Remain Fed Governor After Chair Term Ends No change rises to 98%1% Powell announced he would remain a governor after his chair term ends, amid a DOJ investigation. The news reinforced the perception that policy continuity would persist, keeping “No change” near its peak (98 % on May 8). https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/jerome-powell-staying-on-fed-rates-unchanged-at-april-meeting May 1 2026 Fed's forward guidance hints only rate cuts are possible, causing internal dissent No change rises to 98%2% The Fed's policy statement in early May 2026 suggested that only rate cuts are likely moving forward, which caused consternation among some officials. This forward guidance reinforced market expectations that no rate hikes would occur at the June meeting, further boosting the 'No change' outcome probability. https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/01/business/fed-reserve-rate-hikes May 1 2026 Fed subtly signals only rate cuts possible with 'additional' language The Federal Reserve's policy statement used the word 'additional' to signal an easing bias, drawing objections from three Fed officials who dissented over the language. https://lite.cnn.com/2026/05/01/business/fed-reserve-rate-hikes May 1 2026 Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell The closure of the DOJ investigation removed a major source of political risk, solidifying expectations that the Fed would maintain its current stance. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-investigation-powell-justice-department-28d04cc0d99cda25cea69931f65e25d3 May 1 2026 April jobs report: payrolls +115k, unemployment 4.3% No change rises to 97%1% The May 1 jobs report showed non‑farm payrolls adding 115 000 jobs and unemployment at 4.3%, suggesting a still‑robust labor market. The strength reduced expectations of a rate cut, nudging the market further toward the “No change” outcome. https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-rate-forecast-2026/ Apr 30 2026 Fed’s June meeting expected to hold rates steady as political pressure mounts No change rises to 98%2% Analysts cited growing political pressure from the White House and the Supreme Court case over Fed independence, leading the market to near‑certainly price in no change, with the No‑change contract reaching 98 % by early May. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-federal-reserve-independence-5c2ec1a37dc4aca6a59544f8b4513a45 Apr 29 2026 Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Unprecedented Four‑Member Dissent No change rises to 96%3% The April meeting again resulted in a hold, but four members dissented – the highest dissent since 1992 – signalling growing uncertainty. The market’s “No change” probability rose from 93 % on Apr 22 to 96 % on Apr 30. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.htmlhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260429a.pdf Apr 29 2026 Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% with divided dissent No change jumps to 97%7% In the April 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The statement noted solid economic activity but elevated inflation partly due to rising energy prices. The vote was split with dissenters favoring a 25 basis point cut. This decision and cautious language increased market confidence in a no-change outcome for the upcoming June meeting. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm Apr 29 2026 Federal Reserve votes 8-4 to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 25 bps cut, indicating continued policy uncertainty. https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/ Apr 29 2026 Fed minutes suggest hawkish stance, lowering chances of rate cuts by June No change rises to 93%4% The April 28-29 meeting minutes showed officials favoring removal of easing bias and readiness for hikes if inflation persists, decreasing market odds of a June rate cut and supporting no change pricing. https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-minutes-reveal-potential-for-rate-hikes-if-inflation-stays-above-target/ Apr 29 2026 FOMC Maintains Rates at 3.5%-3.75% in Final Powell Meeting Before June Decision No change rises to 96%2% The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, with the next decision scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. This was Powell's final FOMC meeting as chair. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm Apr 29 2026 Fed holds rates steady again as leadership transition looms No change rises to 98%4% The April 2026 meeting again left rates unchanged, but the dissent among officials and the pending chair transition kept the market’s “no‑change” confidence extremely high. https://koacolorado.iheart.com/content/2026-04-29-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-again/ Apr 29 2026 Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Divisions and Inflation Concerns No change rises to 93%3% At its April 29, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, despite notable dissent from four members. The decision reflected ongoing inflation pressures, solid economic activity, and uncertainty from geopolitical risks, reinforcing market expectations for no rate change in the near term. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html Apr 29 2026 Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with notable dissent No change rises to 96%3% The April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting concluded with the Fed holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. The decision was marked by an 8-4 vote, the most divided since 1992, signaling internal disagreement but no immediate rate change. This reinforced market expectations for no change in June, reflected in the 'No change' price reaching near 98%. https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/ Apr 29 2026 Federal Reserve maintains interest rates amid elevated inflation and Middle East uncertainty No change rises to 96%2% The Fed kept rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation partly due to rising energy prices from Middle East tensions. The statement included an easing bias, causing some dissent among officials and signaling that rate cuts might be considered later, but no immediate change was made. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm Apr 29 2026 Fed holds rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in final Powell meeting No change rises to 98%2% The Federal Reserve voted 8-4 to hold its benchmark fed funds rate steady, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change as it weighs persistent inflation risks against slowing growth. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/29/fed-leaves-rates-unchanged-at-jerome-powell-s-final-meeting-as-chairman Apr 29 2026 Fed Holds Federal Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% No change surges to 97%40% The April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting concluded with an 8-4 vote to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 25bp cut. https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/https://www.ebc.com/forex/when-does-the-fed-meet-again-final-2025-meeting-and-amp-2026-dates Apr 29 2026 FOMC Meeting Statement Released with Rate Hold Decision No change surges to 97%40% The April 29, 2026 FOMC policy statement confirmed the federal funds rate would remain at 3.50%-3.75%, with the most divided vote in over three decades, setting the stage for market expectations of a likely hold in June. https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor-hub/article/fed-meeting-tracker-interest-rate-strategy/https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm Apr 29 2026 Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady with divided dissent No change rises to 93%3% In April 2026, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, despite some dissent from members preferring a rate cut. The statement highlighted solid economic activity but elevated inflation and uncertainty, maintaining a cautious stance ahead of the June meeting. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm Apr 29 2026 Federal Reserve keeps rates steady amid elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty No change rises to 95%2% In April 2026, the Fed again held rates at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation partly due to energy prices from Middle East tensions. Some dissenters preferred a rate cut, but the committee maintained a cautious stance, supporting market pricing of no change for June. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-fomc-march-18-interest-rate-decision/https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm Apr 29 2026 Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid dissent and leadership transition No change jumps to 98%5% In its April meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with four dissenting members opposing the decision or the policy statement language. This meeting marked the end of Jerome Powell's tenure as chair, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over. The Fed cited inflation trends, geopolitical risks, and economic resilience as reasons for the hold. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-april-2026.html Apr 29 2026 FOMC Meeting: Economic Activity Expanding at Solid Pace No change rises to 97%4% The Fed's April meeting indicated recent indicators suggested economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, with job market conditions being a key focus. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260429.htm Apr 29 2026 Fed Votes 8‑4 to Hold Rates at April 29 2026 Meeting No change surges to 90%28% During the April 29 meeting the Fed voted 8‑4 to hold rates, with dissent from Stephen Miran favouring a cut. The market’s “No change” probability surged to 90 %+, pushing the price to 90 % on April 2 2026. https://primerates.com/prime-rate/fed-meeting-schedule/ Apr 29 2026 FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in Powell's final meeting as Chair No change surges to 91%28% The April 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in a decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with a divided committee vote of 8-4. This meeting was notable as Jerome Powell's final as Chair, with Kevin Warsh set to take over in May. The statement and press conference signaled a cautious stance, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June and contributing to the sharp rise in the 'No change' outcome price. https://primerates.com/april-2026-fomc-meeting-preview/ Apr 28 2026 Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April Meeting No change rises to 93%3% The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, with only minor changes to the policy statement. https://economics.td.com/us-fomc-statement Apr 26 2026 Justice Department subpoenas Fed amid political pressure No change jumps to 96%8% The DOJ’s criminal probe into Chair Powell heightened political tension, leading markets to anticipate that the Fed would avoid any rate moves to preserve its independence, further boosting the "No change" outcome. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Apr 25 2026 Fed Chair Powell attends Supreme Court arguments on Cook case No change rises to 96%3% Powell’s presence at the Supreme Court underscored the Fed’s commitment to independence, further cementing market expectations of a steady rate decision. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-lisa-cook-supreme-court-7f135bd222013d4fe61eb8f03c663676 Apr 24 2026 DOJ drops criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell No change rises to 96%2% The DOJ closed its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, clearing the path for Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh. The removal of this political drag reduced perceived risk of a surprise policy shift, reinforcing market confidence in a rate‑hold and contributing to the final push of the “No change” price to 98 %. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/29/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-ratehttps://www.iheart.com/content/2026-04-24-criminal-investigation-of-fed-chair-jerome-powell-closed/ Apr 24 2026 Fed’s Kevin Warsh nomination cleared by Senate committee No change rises to 96%2% With the investigation dropped, the Senate moved forward on Warsh’s confirmation, suggesting continuity in the Fed’s policy stance and bolstering the No‑change bet. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-kevin-warsh-jerome-powell-dd88a3f06eddcada4db555fe11e547eb Apr 24 2026 Fed reiterates pause on rate adjustments after April meeting No change rises to 98%2% Fed’s post‑meeting statement reiterated a pause on rate adjustments, cementing the “No change” outcome as the market’s near‑certain view. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Apr 24 2026 Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook No change jumps to 96%5% The high‑court hearing underscored the administration’s push to reshape the Fed, keeping markets wary of a potential rate‑cut push and sustaining the no‑change stance. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/supreme-court-takes-politically-charged-case-independence-federal-129391352 Apr 23 2026 President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair No change rises to 93%3% The nomination signaled potential for a more dovish chair, but uncertainty over confirmation kept markets favoring the status‑quo, further boosting No‑change. https://apnews.com/article/warsh-trump-federal-reserve-chair-6b4441263c1b7ecb40b96adf17adeea2 Apr 23 2026 Inflation remains above target, supporting Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts No change rises to 96%3% Data showed inflation stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the case for further rate cuts despite a slowing labor market. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the upcoming June meeting. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-consumers-ac538fd750b4622ee7fa439ef8021783 Apr 23 2026 DOJ prosecutors attempt to access Fed building amid ongoing investigation No change rises to 96%3% Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's headquarters construction site related to the ongoing investigation into the renovation project. Despite the legal scrutiny, the Fed maintained its stance on rate decisions based on economic conditions, supporting market expectations of no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-trump-16f1777a974cf0dece60d78abe4eb973 Apr 22 2026 Fed signals likely to keep rates steady amid inflation and labor market concerns No change rises to 95%2% Ahead of the June meeting, Fed officials indicated a preference to hold rates steady to assess economic conditions, balancing stubborn inflation with a slowing labor market. This cautious stance led markets to strongly favor the no change outcome for the June 2026 Fed decision. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Apr 15 2026 Inflation remains elevated as consumer spending stays strong No change rises to 95%2% Data showed that inflation remained stubbornly above target while consumer spending continued at a healthy pace, signaling a solid economy. This economic backdrop reduced the likelihood of a rate cut and supported market pricing for no change in the Fed's June decision. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-consumers-ac538fd750b4622ee7fa439ef8021783 Apr 15 2026 President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair 25 bps increase jumps to 30%5% The nomination suggested a possible shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, briefly reviving interest in the 25‑bps increase contract before the market re‑evaluated the likelihood of a hold. https://apnews.com/article/warsh-trump-federal-reserve-chair-6b4441263c1b7ecb40b96adf17adeea2 Apr 10 2026 Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic data and political tensions No change rises to 93%2% Ahead of the June meeting, the Fed signaled it would likely keep rates steady, focusing on economic data despite ongoing political and legal challenges. This expectation drove the market price for no change to near certainty. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Apr 10 2026 Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell No change rises to 94%1% The Justice Department dropped its criminal probe into Fed Chair Powell, removing a major political uncertainty and clearing the way for Kevin Warsh's confirmation. This development reinforced market confidence in Fed independence and the likelihood of no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-investigation-powell-justice-department-28d04cc0d99cda25cea69931f65e25d3 Apr 10 2026 US Consumer Price Index shows 3.3% annual inflation in March 2026 No change rises to 90%4% The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.9% monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index for March, pushing annual inflation to 3.3%. The inflation spike was partly attributed to higher energy prices due to the Iran war, reinforcing the Fed's cautious approach to rate changes. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/cpi-inflation-report-march-2026.html Apr 3 2026 Justice Department ends criminal probe into Powell No change rises to 94%3% The DOJ’s decision to drop the investigation removed a major source of political pressure, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would not feel compelled to cut rates before June. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-investigation-powell-justice-department-28d04cc0d99cda25cea69931f65e25d3 Apr 2 2026 Fed’s April meeting ends with unanimous decision to hold rates No change surges to 90%27% A consensus to keep the target range unchanged eliminated any remaining upside for rate‑cut bets, driving the No‑change price toward its peak. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c13913c9e007981f075fb3b22d4a4cec Apr 2 2026 Fed minutes reveal deep divisions on rate policy amid cautious outlook No change surges to 85%20% Minutes from the Fed's December 2025 meeting showed significant dissent and finely balanced decisions on rate policy, indicating ongoing internal debate. This reinforced market expectations of a cautious approach with limited rate changes in 2026, supporting the high probability of no change at the June meeting. https://www.reuters.com/business/final-fed-minutes-2025-shed-light-policy-divisions-2025-12-30/ Apr 1 2026 Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political and economic pressures No change jumps to 92%7% Ahead of the April meeting, analysts and Fed officials signaled a likely pause in rate changes, focusing on economic data rather than political pressures, which supported the market’s strong pricing for no change in June. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Apr 1 2026 Inflation remains stubbornly elevated in December amid DOJ probe into Powell No change rises to 94%1% December inflation data showed prices steady at 2.7% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the Fed's policy decisions. The DOJ's criminal probe into Powell heightened concerns about the Fed's independence, but markets continued to price in no rate change for June. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/inflation-expected-held-firm-posing-challenge-amid-doj/story?id=129127426 Apr 1 2026 Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court hearing on Fed governor firing case No change jumps to 93%8% Powell's attendance at the Supreme Court hearing on the attempted firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook signaled his commitment to defending Fed independence amid political challenges. This reassured markets that the Fed would maintain its current policy stance. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-lisa-cook-supreme-court-7f135bd222013d4fe61eb8f03c663676 Apr 1 2026 Inflation data shows prices tick up, supporting Fed’s cautious stance No change rises to 89%2% November inflation data showed a slight increase in consumer prices and solid consumer spending, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. This data suggested the Fed would be less likely to cut rates soon, supporting the market's no change pricing. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-consumers-ac538fd750b4622ee7fa439ef8021783 Mar 20 2026 Fed minutes show split over further rate cuts, many officials favor holding steady No change surges to 62%16% Released minutes from the March meeting revealed that most policymakers preferred to keep the policy rate unchanged, pushing the market further toward the no‑change outcome. https://apnews.com/article/fed-minutes-lower-inflation-needed-before-cuts-d7aabc066d5a3a330022963289abc0c0 Mar 20 2026 Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before further cuts No change jumps to 96%6% March minutes revealed that a majority of Fed participants still see inflation as too high, causing the market to further consolidate on the No‑change outcome, moving its price from 90 % to 96 %. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-jobs-fed-trump-d7aabc066d5a3a330022963289abc0c0 Mar 20 2026 Fed holds rates steady at March meeting No change jumps to 98%12% The Fed’s March 16‑17 decision to hold rates steady confirmed market expectations, pushing the “No change” price to 98 % and collapsing odds of any move. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Mar 19 2026 Oil price surge from Iran war forces Fed to reassess inflation outlook No change surges to 85%24% A sharp 35 % rise in Brent crude after the Iran conflict (reported March 19) heightened inflation worries. The Fed’s March statement referenced the oil shock, dampening expectations of near‑term cuts and helping keep the market’s “No change” probability high. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-interest-rate-decision-march-2026.htmlhttps://newslab.us/article/federal-reserve-rates-hold-inflation-outlook-2026 Mar 18 2026 Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% No change surges to 63%33% At its March 2026 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged amid solid economic activity, low job gains, and elevated inflation. The Fed signaled caution due to economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks, reinforcing market expectations of no rate change in the near term. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-interest-rate-decision-march-2026.html Mar 18 2026 Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signals data-dependent approach No change surges to 85%21% At the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the target range at 3.5%-3.75%, emphasizing careful assessment of economic data. This decision, along with the release of economic projections, strengthened market confidence in a hold for the June meeting, pushing the 'No change' price higher. https://equalsmoney.com/economic-calendar/events/fed-interest-rate-decision Mar 18 2026 Fed Holds Rate Steady as Oil War Fuels Inflation Concerns No change surges to 84%20% At the March meeting the FOMC again voted 11‑1 to hold the rate at 3.50‑3.75 % amid a war‑driven oil price spike and sticky inflation, confirming the market’s expectation of no change and driving the price of the “No change” contract to near‑full confidence. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-interest-rate-decision-march-2026.htmlhttps://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-march-18-2026 Mar 18 2026 Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Hints at Future Cut in March 2026 No change plunges to 31%17% At the March 18 meeting the Fed again left the rate unchanged, but the Summary of Economic Projections signaled a possible 25 bp cut later in the year. This lifted the “25 bps decrease” price briefly before it fell back, reflecting the market’s mixed expectations. https://sherwood.news/markets/federal-reserve-march-2026-rate-decision-jerome-powell/ Mar 18 2026 Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty No change jumps to 61%13% The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% amid higher-than-expected inflation, a softening labor market, and uncertainty from the Iran war. The decision was widely expected, with a dissenting vote favoring a rate cut. The Fed signaled one rate cut likely later in 2026 but maintained a cautious stance. https://koacolorado.iheart.com/content/2026-03-18-federal-reserve-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged/ Mar 18 2026 FOMC releases Summary of Economic Projections projecting one rate cut later in 2026 No change surges to 63%15% The March 2026 SEP projected one rate cut later in the year, which initially raised market expectations for easing. However, the overall cautious tone and mixed economic data limited enthusiasm for significant rate changes, keeping no change as the dominant market view. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm Mar 18 2026 Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged Due to Persistent Inflation No change surges to 85%26% The FOMC kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting, citing elevated inflation and weakening jobs reports. https://us.eascorp.org/fomc-leaves-rates-unchanged-due-to-inflation-and-employment-uncertainty/ Mar 18 2026 FOMC holds rates steady amid inflation concerns and economic uncertainty No change surges to 87%27% The March 17-18 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, reinforcing market expectations for a hold in June. Persistent inflation risks and a divided committee underscored a cautious policy stance. https://polymarketanalytics.com/markets/45883 Mar 18 2026 Supreme Court hears arguments on Lisa Cook firing case No change jumps to 91%5% The high‑court hearing on whether Trump can fire Governor Cook added uncertainty about the Fed’s composition, leading markets to favor a status‑quo rate decision. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-lisa-cook-supreme-court-7f135bd222013d4fe61eb8f03c663676 Mar 18 2026 Fed Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Fuels Oil‑Price Shock and Higher Inflation No change surges to 84%19% At the March meeting the Fed held rates steady while citing the Iran war‑driven oil shock that pushed PPI up 0.7 % in February. The heightened inflation risk boosted confidence in a hold, moving “No change” from 65 % on Mar 6 to 84 % on Mar 19. https://koacolorado.iheart.com/content/2026-03-18-federal-reserve-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged/https://www.investopedia.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-march-2026-11928975 Mar 18 2026 FOMC keeps rates steady amid inflation and employment uncertainty No change surges to 57%19% In March 2026, the FOMC again held the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation and mixed employment data. The statement noted inflation forecasts were revised up and economic risks from the Middle East conflict were uncertain, which contributed to the decision to pause rate changes and maintain a cautious stance. https://us.eascorp.org/fomc-leaves-rates-unchanged-due-to-inflation-and-employment-uncertainty/ Mar 18 2026 Fed Chair Powell attends Supreme Court argument supporting Fed independence No change surges to 86%23% Jerome Powell attended the Supreme Court hearing on the Lisa Cook firing case, publicly supporting Fed independence amid political pressure. This reinforced market confidence that the Fed would act based on economic data, not politics, supporting the no change outcome. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-lisa-cook-supreme-court-7f135bd222013d4fe61eb8f03c663676 Mar 18 2026 Federal Reserve holds rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% No change surges to 97%40% The FOMC voted 8-4 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, with the median policymaker expecting a 25 bps cut by year-end, signaling a dovish stance despite persistent inflation. https://sherwood.news/markets/federal-reserve-march-2026-rate-decision-jerome-powell/ Mar 18 2026 Fed keeps rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns No change surges to 85%24% At the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, reflecting persistent inflation risks and economic uncertainty. This reinforced market expectations for no rate change in the near term, including the upcoming June meeting. https://equalsmoney.com/economic-calendar/events/fomc-meeting Mar 18 2026 Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts No change surges to 86%22% Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, despite some openness to future cuts if inflation declines. This solidified market expectations for no change in June, reflected in a price jump for the 'No change' outcome. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-jobs-fed-trump-d7aabc066d5a3a330022963289abc0c0 Mar 18 2026 Governor Stephen Miran Calls for a 25‑Basis‑Point Rate Cut No change drops to 1%6% Miran publicly called for a 25‑bps cut during the March meeting. His dissent was noted in the official FOMC statement and in the implementation note, but the vote remained 11‑1 to hold. The dissent kept the “25 bps decrease” price low (≈1 %). https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm Mar 18 2026 FOMC Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75% as Powell's Final Meeting Approaches No change rises to 89%4% The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, with the next decision scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. This decision marked Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as chair. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm Mar 18 2026 Fed holds rates steady in March 2026, cites elevated uncertainty and Iran war No change surges to 85%54% The March meeting again left rates unchanged at 3.50‑3.75 % (11‑1 vote). The statement highlighted “elevated uncertainty” and a possible impact from the Iran war. Market participants revised expectations for future cuts, causing the “No change” price to jump from the low‑30s in early February to a peak of 85 % on March 20. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-interest-rate-decision-march-2026.htmlhttps://us.headtopics.com/news/federal-reserve-holds-rates-steady-81162539 Mar 18 2026 Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty At the March 2026 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, with a near-unanimous vote. Officials noted elevated inflation, a softening labor market, and uncertainty from the Iran war, reinforcing expectations of no rate change in the near term. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-fomc-march-18-interest-rate-decision/ Mar 18 2026 Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed chair Powell No change jumps to 98%12% The DOJ’s criminal probe into Powell was dropped after a judge found no evidence of wrongdoing. The resolution removed a major source of political risk, causing the market’s final swing to near‑certainty of “No change.” https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-investigation-powell-justice-department-28d04cc0d99cda25cea69931f65e25d3 Mar 17 2026 FOMC Holds Rates Unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% No change jumps to 93%8% The Fed maintained its federal funds rate target range unchanged, reinforcing market expectations of no rate change in the near term including the upcoming June meeting. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm Mar 17 2026 Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in March Meeting No change rises to 88%3% The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% with a slightly hawkish sentiment, with three participants voting against maintaining an easing bias. https://economics.td.com/us-fomc-statement Mar 17 2026 FOMC keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% amid cautious economic outlook No change surges to 63%15% At the March 17-18 meeting, the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic growth. This decision supported the market's growing confidence in a no-change scenario for the upcoming June meeting, as reflected in the rising price for the 'No change' outcome. https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/us-federal-reserve-next-policy-meeting-on-april-28-29-full-2026-schedule-here-ws-l-19893141.htm Mar 16 2026 Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ probe as political interference No change jumps to 63%8% Powell’s public defense of the Fed’s independence reassured markets that policy would remain data‑driven, reinforcing expectations of no further change. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/inflation-expected-held-firm-posing-challenge-amid-doj/story?id=129127426 Mar 15 2026 Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political and legal pressures No change rises to 98%2% Analysts highlighted that recent DOJ subpoenas and the Cook case would likely lead the Fed to hold rates steady at its March meeting, reinforcing the market’s belief that the June meeting would follow suit. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Mar 15 2026 Iran‑Israel Conflict Sends Brent Crude Above $104, Raising Inflation Risks No change jumps to 78%8% The escalation of the Iran‑Israel conflict in late February pushed Brent crude above $104, a factor highlighted in the Fed’s March statement and cited by analysts as a reason to keep rates unchanged. The market’s “No change” odds jumped sharply after the oil‑price shock. https://newslab.us/article/federal-reserve-rates-hold-inflation-outlook-2026 Mar 12 2026 Central bankers issue statement backing Fed independence amid Trump‑Powell clash No change jumps to 55%13% Nine major central banks publicly supported Powell, reducing market fears of a politically‑driven rate cut and bolstering the no‑change odds. https://apnews.com/article/fed-powell-central-banks-trump-98403522c4a6315229f4b87fab467820 Mar 11 2026 Republican senators defend Fed Chair Powell amid Trump administration pressure No change surges to 85%25% Several Republican senators publicly supported Fed Chair Powell against the Trump administration's attempts to pressure the Fed, reinforcing the Fed's independence. This political backing helped stabilize market expectations around no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/jerome-powell-federal-reserve-trump-af06d80b28be9c8a5de9c3b2fe33fa3d Mar 10 2026 Fed minutes reveal divided views but no immediate rate cuts planned No change jumps to 59%6% Minutes from the Fed's January meeting showed a split among officials on future rate cuts, with most wanting more inflation progress before cutting rates. This underscored a cautious approach, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-jobs-fed-trump-d7aabc066d5a3a330022963289abc0c0 Mar 9 2026 Global oil prices surge amid escalating US-Israel war with Iran No change jumps to 47%7% The escalation of the US-Israel conflict with Iran led to a sharp spike in global oil prices, with Brent crude reaching nearly $120 per barrel. This supply disruption heightened inflation concerns globally, influencing market expectations about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. https://freedomforallamericans.org/oil-prices-surge-after-iran-strike/ Mar 9 2026 Fed minutes show split over future rate cuts after strong inflation data No change surges to 86%26% Released minutes revealed a deep division among Fed officials, with many favoring a hold. The market interpreted the split as a signal that the June meeting would likely result in no change. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-trump-powell-rates-99d90bab1ba2faa0fc5d4a6106125da7 Mar 8 2026 Fed releases statement that it will likely keep rates unchanged at June meeting No change jumps to 98%6% A formal Fed communication reaffirmed a hold stance, delivering a decisive boost to the No change contract and driving other contracts toward zero. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Mar 6 2026 Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political turmoil No change jumps to 59%12% Analysts projected the Fed would hold rates steady, citing the ongoing DOJ probe and Supreme Court case as reasons the committee would avoid a politically risky cut. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Mar 5 2026 Hiring slows in December despite Fed rate cuts, signaling economic caution No change surges to 86%22% December jobs report showed slower hiring despite prior Fed rate cuts, indicating economic weakness and complicating Fed's dual mandate. This data supported market expectations for no rate change in June as the Fed remained cautious about further cuts. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/jobs-report-expected-show-uptick-hiring-fed-cuts/story?id=129013718 Mar 4 2026 Fed signals hold at March meeting after mixed data No change surges to 86%23% Following a mixed batch of inflation and employment reports, Fed officials indicated no urgency to adjust rates, reinforcing market expectations of a hold and pushing the "No change" price toward its peak. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Mar 2 2026 Fed signals neutral stance ahead of March meeting No change surges to 86%18% Ahead of the March meeting, the Fed reaffirmed a neutral stance, which caused the market’s “No change” price to climb toward 86 %. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Mar 2 2026 Federal prosecutors seek access to Fed building amid ongoing investigation No change jumps to 63%7% Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Federal Reserve's building construction site related to the $2.5 billion renovation under investigation. This reinforced political tensions around the Fed and its chair, contributing to market uncertainty but ultimately did not shift expectations away from no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-trump-16f1777a974cf0dece60d78abe4eb973 Mar 2 2026 Fed’s Jan‑27‑28 meeting minutes show split vote on keeping rates steady No change jumps to 55%12% The minutes revealed a 10‑2 vote to hold rates, underscoring strong resistance to further cuts and pushing the No‑change price higher. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c13913c9e007981f075fb3b22d4a4cec Mar 1 2026 Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, raising political uncertainty No change rises to 60%1% President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Powell introduced uncertainty about future Fed policy, but Warsh’s reputation for intellectual rigor tempered expectations of aggressive rate cuts, keeping no change as the favored outcome. https://apnews.com/article/warsh-trump-federal-reserve-chair-6b4441263c1b7ecb40b96adf17adeea2 Mar 1 2026 Fed minutes show December rate cut was a close call, highlighting committee divisions No change surges to 60%16% Minutes from the December Fed meeting revealed significant dissent and uncertainty among officials about rate cuts versus holding steady, reflecting a cautious stance that supported market expectations of no change in June. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Feb 28 2026 Iran war escalates, pushing energy prices higher and fueling inflation concerns No change jumps to 46%9% The conflict involving the US and Iran led to a shutdown of the Gulf of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, causing energy prices to surge. This geopolitical event heightened inflation risks, making the Fed cautious about cutting rates despite economic growth, reinforcing market expectations of no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/us-inflation-consumer-iran-war-3f11b7fdd20ea56d2f0895e5241af7b6 Feb 28 2026 Iran‑Hormuz conflict spikes oil prices, raising inflation worries No change jumps to 60%13% The war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifted energy prices, prompting analysts to expect the Fed to stay cautious and keep rates unchanged, pushing the No‑change price higher. https://apnews.com/article/us-inflation-consumer-iran-war-3f11b7fdd20ea56d2f0895e5241af7b6 Feb 28 2026 U.S. and Israel attack Iran, sparking oil price surge No change drops to 42%5% The conflict raised global oil prices, reviving inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady rather than cut them. https://apnews.com/article/us-inflation-consumer-iran-war-3f11b7fdd20ea56d2f0895e5241af7b6 Feb 28 2026 Iran‑Israel conflict spikes oil prices, raising inflation concerns No change jumps to 64%13% The outbreak of war in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher, prompting the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance and reinforcing market expectations of no rate change in June. https://apnews.com/article/us-inflation-consumer-iran-war-3f11b7fdd20ea56d2f0895e5241af7b6 Feb 24 2026 Treasury yields fall after Fed pauses cuts No change rises to 51%4% A dip in the 10‑year Treasury yield after the Fed announced a pause in rate cuts lowered long‑term borrowing costs, nudging the market toward the No‑change outcome. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c13913c9e007981f075fb3b22d4a4cec Feb 20 2026 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents No change rises to 96%4% Bessent’s push for a rule requiring regional presidents to live in their districts was seen as an effort to increase White House influence over the Fed, reinforcing expectations of a politically constrained, unchanged rate policy. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-bessent-6ddd9c8b204668551caecf6c5fe51388 Feb 15 2026 Powell says Fed will wait before any further rate cuts No change drops to 38%6% Powell reiterated that the Fed would “wait and see” on further cuts after three consecutive quarter‑point reductions, reinforcing expectations of a steady rate and supporting the “No change” outcome. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-judicial-independence-5c2ec1a37dc4aca6a59544f8b4513a45 Feb 15 2026 Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, despite some support for cuts if inflation declines. This cautious stance supported market pricing of no change in June. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-jobs-fed-trump-d7aabc066d5a3a330022963289abc0c0 Feb 15 2026 Supreme Court agrees to hear case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook No change dips to 46%2% The high court’s decision to consider the Trump administration’s effort to remove Governor Cook signaled potential shifts in Fed board composition, reinforcing market expectations of a steady rate stance. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-lisa-cook-supreme-court-7f135bd222013d4fe61eb8f03c663676 Feb 15 2026 Iran war spikes oil prices, raising inflation fears No change surges to 63%15% A sudden escalation in the Iran conflict drove oil prices higher, prompting concerns that inflation could stay elevated and that the Fed would likely keep rates unchanged to avoid fueling price pressures. https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-oil-iran-1abeddf7c4bf19d1dc96b3f23c1de402c Feb 14 2026 Fed officials signal willingness to keep rates steady amid stubborn inflation No change jumps to 90%5% A statement from the Fed after its February meeting emphasized that inflation remains above target, reinforcing expectations of no change and pushing the No‑change price from 85 % to 90 %. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Feb 14 2026 Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts No change jumps to 52%8% Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, despite some dissenters favoring cuts. This signaled a cautious approach, supporting market expectations of no change at the June meeting. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-jobs-fed-trump-d7aabc066d5a3a330022963289abc0c0 Feb 14 2026 Fed minutes signal need for more inflation progress before another cut No change jumps to 47%10% Minutes from the February meeting emphasized that most officials wanted further inflation decline, reducing the probability of a cut and reinforcing the No‑change outcome. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-jobs-fed-trump-d7aabc066d5a3a330022963289abc0c0 Feb 10 2026 Economic data shows slowing hiring and persistent inflation No change jumps to 37%6% Reports indicated that hiring slowed in December 2025 despite Fed rate cuts, while inflation remained above target. This mixed economic data complicated the Fed's decision-making, supporting market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady at the June meeting to balance inflation control and labor market support. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/jobs-report-expected-show-uptick-hiring-fed-cuts/story?id=129013718 Feb 10 2026 Cleveland Fed President Says Rates Could Remain Steady for a Long Time No change dips to 51%3% Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told bankers that rates could stay “where they are for a long time.” Her reassurance reduced market expectations of a cut, pushing the “25 bps decrease” price down from ~54 % on Feb 6 to ~51 % on Feb 14. https://www.pointfxltd.com/news-room/news/federal-reserve-official-interest-rates-could-remain-steady-for-a-long-time-2026-02-10 Feb 10 2026 Federal Reserve official signals interest rates could remain steady for a long time No change jumps to 38%12% Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that interest rates might stay at current levels for an extended period, reflecting cautious optimism about the economy. This reinforced market expectations for no rate changes in the near term, supporting the high probability of a hold at upcoming meetings. https://www.pointfxltd.com/news-room/news/federal-reserve-official-interest-rates-could-remain-steady-for-a-long-time-2026-02-10 Feb 10 2026 Fed’s Beth Hammack says rates could stay steady for a long time No change jumps to 55%10% Beth Hammack told the Ohio Bankers Association that rates could stay “where they are for a long time”, reinforcing the market’s view that a near‑term cut was unlikely and helping the “No change” price climb from the low‑40s in late January to the mid‑50s by early February. https://www.pointfxltd.com/news-room/news/federal-reserve-official-interest-rates-could-remain-steady-for-a-long-time-2026-02-10 Feb 10 2026 Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court hearing on Fed governor firing case No change jumps to 37%5% Powell's attendance at the Supreme Court hearing on the attempted firing of Fed governor Lisa Cook signaled his support for Fed independence, reassuring markets about the Fed's autonomy in rate decisions. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-lisa-cook-supreme-court-7f135bd222013d4fe61eb8f03c663676 Feb 10 2026 Fed official: interest rates could remain steady for a long time No change jumps to 53%7% Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said rates could stay where they are for a long time, dampening expectations of a February cut and contributing to the market’s swing toward the “no‑change” outcome. https://www.pointfxltd.com/news-room/news/federal-reserve-official-interest-rates-could-remain-steady-for-a-long-time-2026-02-10 Feb 10 2026 Fed officials divided on rate cuts amid economic uncertainty No change jumps to 37%5% Fed minutes from December revealed a split among officials on whether to cut rates or hold steady, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and the labor market. This division contributed to market volatility but ultimately supported the no change consensus as the Fed awaited clearer data. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Feb 8 2026 Prosecutors attempt unannounced site visit at Fed headquarters No change jumps to 38%8% Federal prosecutors tried to access the Fed’s renovation site, underscoring the intensity of the investigation and reinforcing market belief that the Fed would not yield to political pressure by changing rates. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-trump-16f1777a974cf0dece60d78abe4eb973 Feb 7 2026 Mortgage rates dip as market anticipates further Fed easing 25 bps increase jumps to 37%11% A fall in 30‑year mortgage rates reflected expectations of additional cuts, briefly lifting the 25 bps increase price before the market reversed later in February. https://apnews.com/article/mortgage-rates-housing-interest-financing-home-9d8fabf50c493891caeaf6b4d53458ee Feb 7 2026 Fed officials say inflation still above target, rates likely to hold No change drops to 30%14% Fed officials signaled that inflation remained above target and that rates would likely stay steady. The reassurance caused a sharp drop in the “25 bps decrease” probability, moving the market toward “No change”. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-consumers-ac538fd750b4622ee7fa439ef8021783 Feb 6 2026 Trump again pushes for lower rates; Powell warns of political pressure No change jumps to 98%8% President Trump publicly reiterated his demand for lower rates while Powell again warned that political pressure would undermine the Fed. The back‑and‑forth reinforced market consensus that the Fed would stay on its current 3.6 % target range, pushing “No change” to an all‑time high of 98 % on May 18. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Feb 5 2026 Supreme Court hears case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook No change jumps to 92%8% The high‑court hearing on whether President Trump can remove Governor Cook signaled potential changes to the Board’s composition, prompting markets to anticipate a cautious Fed that would likely hold rates steady. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-lisa-cook-supreme-court-7f135bd222013d4fe61eb8f03c663676 Feb 5 2026 Fed minutes reveal potential for rate hikes if inflation stays above target No change jumps to 45%5% Minutes from the April 28-29 meeting indicated a hawkish stance with officials open to further rate hikes if inflation remains above 2%. This reduced expectations for rate cuts by June and supported the no change outcome. https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-minutes-reveal-potential-for-rate-hikes-if-inflation-stays-above-target/ Feb 5 2026 Justice Department subpoenas the Federal Reserve over Chairman Powell’s testimony 25 bps decrease jumps to 45%7% The unprecedented subpoena heightened political pressure on the Fed, causing traders to price in a higher likelihood of a rate‑cut, which briefly lifted the 25‑bps decrease contract before the market re‑asserted confidence in a hold. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Feb 5 2026 Fed minutes show officials want more inflation progress before rate cuts No change jumps to 46%8% Minutes from the January Fed meeting revealed most officials favored holding rates steady until inflation falls further, reinforcing market pricing of no change at the June meeting despite some dissenters favoring cuts. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-jobs-fed-trump-d7aabc066d5a3a330022963289abc0c0 Feb 4 2026 Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook No change rises to 47%3% The Supreme Court considered Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The court appeared inclined to allow Cook to remain, signaling limits on presidential control over the Fed and supporting market expectations of policy stability. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/supreme-court-takes-politically-charged-case-independence-federal-129391352 Feb 2 2026 Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair No change jumps to 93%7% Trump nominated former Fed official Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as chair. Senate hesitation over the nomination, linked to the ongoing DOJ probe, led traders to price in a higher likelihood that the Fed would leave policy unchanged until the leadership issue was resolved. https://apnews.com/article/warsh-trump-federal-reserve-chair-6b4441263c1b7ecb40b96adf17adeea2 Feb 1 2026 Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing amid political tensions No change jumps to 37%5% The Supreme Court took up a politically charged case regarding President Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting the ongoing political struggle over the Fed's independence. This event underscored the heightened political risks surrounding Fed policy decisions, reinforcing market expectations of no rate change. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/supreme-court-takes-politically-charged-case-independence-federal-129391352 Jan 31 2026 Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged at 3.6% in first 2026 meeting No change jumps to 48%5% The Fed held rates steady at about 3.6% during the January 27-28, 2026 meeting, reflecting a split committee and ongoing inflation concerns. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the near term, tempering earlier expectations for cuts. https://www.fox4news.com/news/federal-reserve-keeps-rate-unchanged-1st-meeting-2026 Jan 29 2026 Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in first 2026 policy decision No change rises to 48%4% The Fed maintained its rate at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026, with officials citing subdued job growth and persistent inflation. The decision was widely anticipated, with only two dissenting votes. https://www.stephens.com/perspectives/federal-funds-rate-holds-steady-january-29-2026 Jan 28 2026 US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated uncertainty No change jumps to 48%5% In its first rate decision of 2026, the Fed maintained the target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing elevated economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks, including the Iran war. The decision was widely expected and reflected the Fed's commitment to its dual mandate despite political pressure to cut rates. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/1/28/us-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-despite-political-pressure Jan 28 2026 FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January meeting No change jumps to 48%5% The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in its first meeting of 2026. Two members dissented, preferring a 25 basis point cut, but the majority signaled a pause amid solid economic activity and elevated inflation, reinforcing market expectations for no immediate rate changes. https://www.texasbankers.com/fomc-maintains-rates-for-first-meeting-of-2026/ Jan 28 2026 Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.75 % Target Range The FOMC voted 10‑2 to keep the federal‑funds target range at 3.50‑3.75 %, ending three consecutive cuts. The decision was widely expected, reinforcing market belief that rates would remain unchanged through the spring. https://republicandigest.com/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-amid-ongoing-inflation-pressures-january-28-2026/https://www.givtrade.com/blog/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady Jan 28 2026 Fed votes to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% No change surges to 96%39% The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to maintain the federal funds rate range unchanged, defying administration calls for cuts and ending three consecutive quarter-point reductions. https://themortgagepoint.com/2026/01/28/fed-votes-to-hold-interest-rates-steady/ Jan 28 2026 Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid improved economic outlook No change rises to 48%4% The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at the January 27-28, 2026 meeting, citing a careful assessment of incoming data and evolving risks. This reinforced market expectations for a pause in rate changes, contributing to a rise in the 'No change' price and decline in rate cut probabilities. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/fed-rate-decision-january-2026.html Jan 28 2026 FOMC Holds Interest Rates Steady at First Meeting of 2026 No change drops to 30%5% The Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic expansion and elevated inflation. https://www.texasbankers.com/fomc-maintains-rates-for-first-meeting-of-2026/ Jan 28 2026 President Trump Presses Fed for Immediate Rate Cuts No change jumps to 57%13% Trump publicly criticised the Fed for not cutting rates, intensifying political pressure. While the market already priced a hold, the additional scrutiny briefly lifted the “No change” price to 57 % on Jan 27. https://kogo.iheart.com/content/2026-01-28-federal-reserve-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged/ Jan 28 2026 Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady in First 2026 Policy Decision No change surges to 98%41% The Fed voted 10-2 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with Chair Powell signaling a wait-and-see approach as inflation remained elevated and labor market uncertainty persisted. https://www.usnn.news/federal-reserve-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-in-first-policy-decision-of-2026/ Jan 28 2026 Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in first 2026 meeting No change dips to 47%1% The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026, citing elevated economic uncertainty and signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical risks. This reinforced market expectations for no immediate rate changes. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/1/28/us-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-despite-political-pressure Jan 27 2026 Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January meeting The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75% during its January 27-28 meeting, signaling a pause in rate changes amid ongoing inflation concerns. This decision set the tone for market expectations of no immediate rate moves in early 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm Jan 27 2026 Fed minutes reveal majority want inflation progress before rate cuts No change rises to 48%4% Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to keep rates steady until inflation falls further, signaling a cautious approach. This reinforced market pricing for no change at the June meeting. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-jobs-fed-trump-d7aabc066d5a3a330022963289abc0c0 Jan 27 2026 Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January Meeting The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% despite economic expansion, signaling a cautious approach to rate changes. https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/research-analysis/reports/fed-rate.htm Jan 27 2026 FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty No change drops to 43%5% The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the target federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during its January 27-28 meeting, signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing economic pressures. This decision reinforced market expectations for no immediate rate changes, contributing to the initial rise in the 'No change' outcome price. https://currencythoughts.com/2026/01/28/fomc-preview-80/ Jan 25 2026 Trump names Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair No change drops to 45%5% Trump’s nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as his successor signaled a possible shift toward higher rates, causing the market to tilt away from “25 bps increase”. https://apnews.com/article/warsh-trump-federal-reserve-chair-6b4441263c1b7ecb40b96adf17adeea2 Jan 21 2026 Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump's bid to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook No change surges to 86%15% The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on the case to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. While the Court did not immediately rule, the hearing signaled a possible disruption of the board’s composition, prompting market participants to hedge toward a “No change” outcome to avoid volatility from a potential board reshuffle. https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-trump-federal-reserve-lisa-cook-5a48941a9e30017b0ed3e5837492d288 Jan 21 2026 Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook No change jumps to 48%6% The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump can remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a case with implications for Fed independence. The court appeared inclined to keep Cook on the board, signaling judicial support for the Fed's autonomy, which bolstered market confidence in no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-cook-federal-reserve-powell-a8572f8a1f62cf653e822a64c714d05a Jan 21 2026 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents No change rises to 47%2% Bessent’s proposal to let the Board veto regional presidents increased speculation that the White House could gain more control over the Fed, reinforcing expectations of a hold‑steady policy. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-bessent-6ddd9c8b204668551caecf6c5fe51388 Jan 21 2026 Supreme Court appears likely to keep Fed Governor Lisa Cook in office No change rises to 48%1% The Supreme Court hearing on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook signaled a probable decision to maintain her position, preserving the current Fed board balance and limiting political influence, which supported market expectations of no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-cook-federal-reserve-powell-a8572f8a1f62cf653e822a64c714d05a Jan 20 2026 Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve chair No change jumps to 48%5% President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, signaling potential continuity but also political influence. Markets reacted by stabilizing expectations around no change, as Warsh was seen as capable but facing challenges in pushing rate cuts. https://apnews.com/article/warsh-trump-federal-reserve-chair-6b4441263c1b7ecb40b96adf17adeea2 Jan 20 2026 Justice Department ends criminal probe into Fed Chair Powell No change jumps to 84%13% The DOJ announced it was dropping the investigation, removing a major source of political pressure and reinforcing expectations that the Fed would not feel compelled to cut rates before the June meeting. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-investigation-powell-justice-department-28d04cc0d99cda25cea69931f65e25d3 Jan 20 2026 Trump announces plan to name Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair No change jumps to 50%5% President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling potential changes in Fed leadership. Warsh's nomination raised questions about future rate policy, but his cautious stance and the divided Fed committee suggested limited immediate impact on rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations for no change in June. https://apnews.com/article/warsh-trump-federal-reserve-chair-6b4441263c1b7ecb40b96adf17adeea2 Jan 20 2026 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents No change jumps to 92%8% Bessent’s proposal signaled a possible shift in Fed governance that could give the White House more leverage over rate decisions, weakening confidence in any rate‑cut scenario and further boosting No change. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-bessent-6ddd9c8b204668551caecf6c5fe51388 Jan 20 2026 Top central bankers express full solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid Trump clash No change jumps to 52%10% Central bankers worldwide publicly supported Fed Chair Powell following the DOJ investigation and political pressure from President Trump. This global backing reinforced the Fed's independence and market confidence that the Fed would maintain current rates rather than yield to political demands for cuts or hikes. https://apnews.com/article/fed-powell-central-banks-trump-98403522c4a6315229f4b87fab467820 Jan 20 2026 Supreme Court appears inclined to keep Fed Governor Lisa Cook amid Trump firing attempt No change surges to 87%24% The Supreme Court showed skepticism toward President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, reinforcing the Fed's political independence. This legal development bolstered market confidence that the Fed's policy decisions would remain insulated from political interference, supporting the no change outcome. https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-cook-federal-reserve-powell-a8572f8a1f62cf653e822a64c714d05a Jan 20 2026 Trump attacks Powell over building renovation and urges credit‑card rate cap 25 bps decrease rises to 54%4% Trump’s public criticism of Powell’s handling of the Fed building renovation and calls for a 10 % credit‑card‑rate cap raised concerns about political pressure, nudging the market toward “25 bps decrease”. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/doj-launches-criminal-investigation-fed-chair-jerome-powell/story?id=129114228 Jan 15 2026 Federal prosecutors visit Fed building amid ongoing investigation No change drops to 42%6% Federal prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the Fed's construction site related to the renovation investigation, underscoring the administration's persistence despite lack of evidence. Concurrently, President Trump threatened to fire Powell, increasing political tensions but markets remained confident in Fed independence and no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-trump-16f1777a974cf0dece60d78abe4eb973 Jan 14 2026 Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid legal and political scrutiny No change jumps to 53%5% Ahead of the January Fed meeting, officials signaled a likely hold on interest rates despite ongoing DOJ investigation and political pressure. Chair Powell emphasized economic data as the basis for decisions, reinforcing market confidence in no change at upcoming meetings. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Jan 14 2026 Supreme Court hears case on attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook No change jumps to 42%5% The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump could fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, an unprecedented move. Powell attended the hearing, signaling Fed leadership's support for independence. This event underscored political tensions but reinforced expectations that the Fed would act based on economic conditions, supporting no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-lisa-cook-supreme-court-7f135bd222013d4fe61eb8f03c663676 Jan 13 2026 Global central banks issue solidarity statement with Fed Chair Powell No change jumps to 41%8% Nine major central banks publicly backed Powell’s independence, temporarily calming markets but not reversing the move toward "No change" as political risk remained high. https://apnews.com/article/fed-powell-central-banks-trump-98403522c4a6315229f4b87fab467820 Jan 13 2026 Central bankers worldwide express full solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid political pressure No change rises to 48%4% Top central bankers from major economies publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, emphasizing the critical importance of central bank independence. This global backing reinforced market expectations that the Fed would resist political pressure and maintain current interest rates. https://apnews.com/article/fed-powell-central-banks-trump-98403522c4a6315229f4b87fab467820 Jan 13 2026 Stocks close higher despite DOJ probe into Fed Chair Powell No change rises to 52%4% Despite the DOJ criminal investigation news, stocks closed higher, indicating investor confidence in the Fed's independence and a steady interest rate outlook. Powell's public rebuke of the probe as politically motivated helped stabilize market expectations toward no rate change. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/stocks-fall-after-trumps-doj-opens-criminal-probe/story?id=129127081 Jan 13 2026 DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell No change jumps to 37%6% Federal prosecutors confirmed a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's building renovation. Powell stated this was part of a political effort to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates, which bolstered market confidence that the Fed would maintain independence and keep rates steady. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/doj-launches-criminal-investigation-fed-chair-jerome-powell/story?id=129114228 Jan 13 2026 Top central bankers express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid Trump clash No change jumps to 52%5% Central bankers worldwide publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence. This international backing reinforced market expectations that the Fed would maintain its current interest rate policy despite political pressures. https://apnews.com/article/fed-powell-central-banks-trump-98403522c4a6315229f4b87fab467820 Jan 13 2026 Global central bankers express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell amid Trump clash Top central bankers worldwide publicly supported Fed Chair Powell, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence. This international backing reinforced market expectations that the Fed would resist political pressure and maintain current rates. https://apnews.com/article/fed-powell-central-banks-trump-98403522c4a6315229f4b87fab467820 Jan 13 2026 Central bankers worldwide express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell No change jumps to 60%13% Top central bankers from major economies publicly supported Fed Chair Powell amid political attacks and DOJ investigation, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence. This bolstered market confidence that the Fed would maintain its current rate policy, pushing the no change probability higher. https://apnews.com/article/fed-powell-central-banks-trump-98403522c4a6315229f4b87fab467820 Jan 12 2026 Treasury secretary warns Trump that DOJ probe is a distraction No change surges to 98%41% Sources reported Treasury Secretary Bessent warned President Trump about the DOJ probe’s distraction, echoing concerns from Republican senators. The news reinforced market expectations that policymakers would avoid a rate move until the legal cloud cleared, lifting the “No change” price to near‑99 % by early February. https://abcnews.com/Politics/treasury-secretary-bessent-happy-investigation-powell-conveyed-concerns/story?id=129161482 Jan 12 2026 Trump says Fed rates are far too high and urges immediate cuts No change jumps to 71%8% Trump publicly demanded that the Fed cut rates sharply, calling current rates “far too high.” His aggressive stance reinforced market expectations that the Fed would keep rates unchanged to avoid a political showdown, reinforcing the “No change” price surge. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/doj-launches-criminal-investigation-fed-chair-jerome-powell/story?id=129114228 Jan 12 2026 Supreme Court agrees to hear case on President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook 25 bps decrease drops to 38%12% The pending legal battle raised concerns that the Fed could lose independence, increasing the perceived risk of a politically‑driven rate cut and pulling price support from the 25‑bps decrease contract. https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-trump-federal-reserve-lisa-cook-5a48941a9e30017b0ed3e5837492d288 Jan 12 2026 Treasury Secretary Bessent pushes residency rule for Fed regional presidents No change jumps to 92%8% Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly urged a residency rule for regional Fed presidents, signaling a push for greater political control. Market participants reacted by moving away from the “25 bps increase” outcome toward “No change”. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-bessent-6ddd9c8b204668551caecf6c5fe51388 Jan 12 2026 Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ probe as political pressure No change jumps to 45%8% Powell issued a rare video statement condemning the DOJ investigation as a pretext to undermine the Fed’s independence in setting interest rates. This public defense reassured markets about the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting the no change outcome in the market. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Jan 11 2026 Fed Chair Powell says DOJ subpoenaed the central bank, threatens criminal indictment No change surges to 63%18% Powell released a video message confirming that the DOJ had subpoenaed the Fed and threatened a criminal indictment over his June testimony on the Fed’s building renovation. The announcement sparked fears of political interference and pushed the market sharply toward a “No change” outlook as traders anticipated the Fed would avoid any action that could be used against it. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Jan 11 2026 DOJ subpoenas Federal Reserve and launches criminal investigation into Chair Powell No change rises to 47%3% The Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and launched a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's building renovations. This unprecedented political pressure raised concerns about the Fed's independence and likely contributed to market caution about rate changes. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Jan 11 2026 DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell No change surges to 98%41% The DOJ initiated a criminal probe into Powell related to his testimony about Fed building renovations, sparking fears of political interference in rate-setting. Powell called it a 'pretext' to pressure the Fed to lower rates, causing market uncertainty. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/doj-launches-criminal-investigation-fed-chair-jerome-powell/story?id=129114228https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Jan 11 2026 Powell rebukes DOJ criminal probe into his testimony about Fed building renovation No change surges to 98%41% Powell issued a video statement denouncing the DOJ's criminal investigation into his June testimony about Fed building renovations as politically motivated 'pretexts' to undermine the Fed's independence and pressure rate cuts. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/doj-launches-criminal-investigation-fed-chair-jerome-powell/story?id=129114228https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Jan 11 2026 President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as Fed chair No change surges to 85%23% Trump’s nomination signaled a possible shift toward a more dovish Fed, prompting a further rise in the No‑change price (62 % → 85 %) as markets priced in political resistance to rate cuts. https://apnews.com/article/warsh-trump-federal-reserve-chair-6b4441263c1b7ecb40b96adf17adeea2 Jan 11 2026 Fed Chair Jerome Powell rebukes DOJ criminal investigation as political pressure No change jumps to 56%8% Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell publicly condemned the Department of Justice's criminal investigation into his testimony about the Fed's building renovations, calling it a pretext to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates. This event highlighted political tensions but reinforced the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, supporting market expectations of no rate change. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/dojs-criminal-probe-fed-chair-powell/story?id=129127089 Jan 11 2026 Fed Chair Powell rebukes DOJ criminal probe as politically motivated No change jumps to 57%9% Following reports of a DOJ criminal investigation into Powell's testimony about Fed building renovations, Powell issued a rare video statement condemning the probe as a politically motivated attempt to influence Fed policy. This bolstered market confidence in Fed independence and reduced expectations for rate cuts. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/inflation-expected-held-firm-posing-challenge-amid-doj/story?id=129127426 Jan 11 2026 Powell releases video condemning DOJ subpoenas as political pretexts No change rises to 45%1% Powell’s public video stating the subpoenas were meant to pressure the Fed to cut rates heightened market fears of political interference, further solidifying bets on no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-powell-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Jan 11 2026 Justice Department subpoenas Fed amid investigation of Powell’s testimony No change drops to 36%5% The DOJ’s criminal probe heightened political risk for the Fed, prompting markets to price in a more cautious stance and shifting sentiment toward no further cuts. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/inflation-expected-held-firm-posing-challenge-amid-doj/story?id=129127426 Jan 11 2026 Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell No change jumps to 98%7% The DOJ announced it was ending its criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, removing a major political cloud. The news removed fears of a forced rate‑cut agenda, causing the market to swing dramatically to the “No change” bracket. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-investigation-powell-justice-department-28d04cc0d99cda25cea69931f65e25d3 Jan 11 2026 Powell calls DOJ subpoenas a pretext to force rate cuts No change jumps to 94%5% Powell released a video stating the DOJ subpoenas were “pretexts” to pressure the Fed to cut rates. The clarification reassured markets that rate policy would stay unchanged, boosting the “No change” price. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm Jan 11 2026 Supreme Court hearing on Lisa Cook firing case No change rises to 47%2% The Supreme Court scheduled oral arguments on the Trump administration’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, signaling potential limits on presidential control over the Fed and bolstering expectations of policy stability. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-lisa-cook-supreme-court-7f135bd222013d4fe61eb8f03c663676 Jan 11 2026 Powell confirms DOJ criminal probe, calls it political pretext No change surges to 70%26% Chair Powell released a video message confirming the Justice Department’s criminal investigation into his testimony about the Fed’s building renovation, describing it as a political “pretext”. The announcement sparked a sharp sell‑off in Fed‑rate‑sensitive markets, pushing the “No change” probability up from the low‑40s to over 70 % within a day. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758https://abcnews.com/Politics/doj-launches-criminal-investigation-fed-chair-jerome-powell/story?id=129114228 Jan 11 2026 Justice Department subpoenas Federal Reserve, threatening criminal indictment of Chair Powell No change rises to 48%4% The DOJ launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about a $2.5 billion Fed building renovation, escalating political pressure on the Fed. Powell publicly condemned the probe as a pretext to influence monetary policy, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would maintain rates to preserve independence. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Jan 11 2026 DOJ subpoenas Fed, threatens criminal indictment of Chair Powell No change rises to 48%4% The Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and threatened criminal charges against Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about a $2.5 billion Fed building renovation. Powell condemned the probe as politically motivated to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would maintain rates to preserve independence. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Jan 11 2026 Fed Chair Powell reveals DOJ subpoena and criminal threat over testimony Jerome Powell disclosed that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed and threatened criminal indictment over his June testimony about the Fed's $2.5 billion building renovation. This unprecedented legal pressure highlighted political tensions but reinforced the Fed's independence, contributing to market confidence in a cautious, steady rate policy. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Jan 11 2026 DOJ subpoenas Federal Reserve, threatening criminal indictment of Chair Powell Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed and threatened criminal indictment related to his testimony on the Fed's building renovations. This unprecedented legal pressure raised concerns about Fed independence but did not shift market expectations for rate changes. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Jan 11 2026 Fed Chair Powell condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pressure No change rises to 48%4% Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly rebuked the Justice Department's subpoenas related to his testimony on Fed building renovations, calling them 'pretexts' aimed at pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. This statement underscored the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions, bolstering market confidence in no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Jan 11 2026 Fed Chair Powell publicly condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pressure No change jumps to 37%6% Fed Chair Jerome Powell issued a video statement condemning the Justice Department subpoenas related to his testimony on Fed building renovations, calling them 'pretexts' to punish the Fed for not cutting rates as sharply as President Trump wanted. This reinforced the Fed's stance to base rate decisions on economic data, supporting market expectations of no rate change. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-powell-inflation-c1e2c5222795bda4a1d294f6406f66fc Jan 11 2026 DOJ subpoenas Federal Reserve amid investigation into Powell No change jumps to 55%7% The Department of Justice subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and threatened criminal indictment of Chair Jerome Powell over his testimony about the Fed's $2.5 billion building renovation. This unprecedented legal pressure raised concerns about the Fed's independence and likely contributed to market caution regarding rate changes. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Jan 10 2026 DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell No change jumps to 71%14% The Justice Department announced a criminal probe into Powell’s testimony on Fed building renovations, raising concerns that political attacks could force the Fed to maintain its policy stance and avoid further cuts. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/doj-launches-criminal-investigation-fed-chair-jerome-powell/story?id=129114228 Jan 8 2026 January jobs report shows 130,000 hires, unemployment falls to 4.3% 25 bps decrease rises to 50%3% Stronger‑than‑expected payrolls suggested a resilient labor market, increasing expectations that the Fed could consider another cut, briefly boosting the 25 bps decrease price. https://apnews.com/article/jobs-economy-unemployment-labor-c760d3f86988833bc9ccb3936d44d61b Jan 7 2026 DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell No change drops to 44%13% The Justice Department announced a criminal probe into Powell’s testimony on Fed building renovations, raising concerns that political pressure could force the Fed to cut rates. Traders interpreted the move as a threat to Fed independence, boosting confidence in a No‑change outcome. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/doj-launches-criminal-investigation-fed-chair-jerome-powell/story?id=129114228 Jan 2 2026 Wall Street opens 2026 with mixed outlook for Fed cuts No change rises to 48%4% The first trading day of 2026 saw modest gains but analysts noted that the market was pricing in a hold at the upcoming January meeting, reducing demand for further cuts and boosting the "No change" price. https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-baidu-trump-rates-491d6d4e0f3e4b3f8c0e48ae2b1455b3 Dec 31 2025 Fed’s December 2025 rate cut reveals divisions among officials 25 bps decrease rises to 60%3% The Fed cut the target federal‑funds range by a quarter‑point to 3.6% (9‑3 vote). The announcement triggered a sharp rise in the market’s “25 bps decrease” price, which later fell as the market re‑priced expectations of further cuts. https://www.herejacksonville.com/federal-reserve-interest-rate-cut-divisions/ Dec 30 2025 Fed minutes show deep divisions over December rate cut 25 bps decrease drops to 40%10% The minutes revealed a highly divisive meeting with some members acknowledging the decision was finely balanced, highlighting the Fed's internal disagreement about future policy direction. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/30/fed-minutes-december-2025.htmlhttps://www.reuters.com/business/final-fed-minutes-2025-shed-light-policy-divisions-2025-12-30/ Dec 30 2025 Fed minutes reveal deep divisions over future rate cuts No change surges to 98%41% Minutes showed seven of 19 policymakers projected no reductions in 2026, while eight wanted at least two cuts. The policy statement was amended to include 'extent and timing' language, signaling a pause in rate cuts until clearer economic data emerged. https://www.reuters.com/business/final-fed-minutes-2025-shed-light-policy-divisions-2025-12-30/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/30/business/federal-reserve-minutes-december.html Dec 30 2025 Fed minutes reveal deep policy divisions at December meeting 25 bps decrease drops to 40%10% The minutes showed that even supporters of the rate cut acknowledged the decision was finely balanced, reflecting the Fed's divided opinion on future monetary policy. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/30/federal-reserve-minutes-interest-rate-monetary-policy Dec 25 2025 President Trump publicly calls for deeper rate cuts No change rises to 45%1% Trump reiterated his demand for the Fed to lower rates to as low as 1%, intensifying political pressure and prompting traders to bet the Fed would avoid a cut to maintain credibility. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trump-lower-interest-rates-good-idea/story?id=129278811 Dec 18 2025 Fed Chair Powell condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pretexts Powell issued a video message calling the subpoenas a pretext to pressure the Fed into cutting rates, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would resist political demands and hold rates unchanged. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758 Dec 18 2025 Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025 No change drops to 43%14% The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third cut in 2025. This move aimed to support economic activity amid easing inflation and a softening labor market, setting the stage for cautious monetary policy in 2026. https://www.drexelmortgage.com/index.php/blog/post/188/december-18-2025---us-federal-reserve-rate-cut Dec 15 2025 Federal Reserve officials signal possible rate cut in December meeting 25 bps decrease drops to 44%13% Fed officials hinted at a potential quarter‑point cut in the Dec 9‑10 meeting, sparking optimism for lower rates and briefly boosting the 25 bps decrease price before it fell back as the cut was confirmed. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Dec 12 2025 U.S. inflation rises in November, dampening hopes for a rate cut No change drops to 44%13% Core CPI increased 2.8% YoY in November, signaling persistent price pressures and leading traders to expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its December meeting. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-consumers-ac538fd750b4622ee7fa439ef8021783 Dec 12 2025 Fed minutes reveal split over December rate cut Released minutes showed two officials had voted to keep rates unchanged and one favored a half‑point cut, highlighting dissent and raising doubts about further easing. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Dec 11 2025 Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps amid divided committee No change rises to 48%4% In December 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points after a closely contested vote, reflecting uncertainty among officials about inflation and labor market conditions. This decision influenced market expectations, initially supporting the possibility of further cuts but also highlighting divisions that made large moves less certain. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Dec 11 2025 Fed cuts rates to 3.5-3.75% amid economic uncertainty 25 bps decrease plunges to 1%49% The Fed lowered the federal funds rate to 3.5-3.75% after a 25-basis-point cut, with the decision influenced by a slowing labor market and rising unemployment. The market initially priced in a single cut for 2026. https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-12-10-2025https://english.news.cn/northamerica/20251211/8e52808812f047b99150f0a617b0b0a7/c.html Dec 10 2025 Fed signals cautious 2026 outlook with limited rate cuts expected No change rises to 48%4% Alongside the rate cut, the Fed's projections indicated just one more quarter-point reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, with inflation expected to remain above target until 2028. The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3%, supporting a moderate economic expansion. This tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts, reinforcing the market's shift toward the 'No change' outcome. https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/fed-meeting-december-2025 Dec 10 2025 Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid divided officials No change drops to 33%9% At the December 9-10 meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was close with a 9-3 vote, reflecting uncertainty about inflation versus labor market risks. This underscored the Fed's cautious approach and contributed to market expectations of no further immediate cuts. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Dec 10 2025 Fed minutes show split over December rate cut No change drops to 44%13% The released minutes from the Dec. 9‑10 FOMC meeting highlighted a 9‑3 vote for a quarter‑point cut and noted dissent from two officials, signaling uncertainty and prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of further cuts. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Dec 10 2025 Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 basis points amid divided committee 25 bps decrease drops to 40%10% At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to about 3.6%, the third cut that year, but the decision was marked by unusual dissent (9-3 vote), reflecting uncertainty about the economy and inflation. This cautious move influenced market expectations, initially lowering the probability of no change and increasing expectations for rate cuts. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Dec 10 2025 DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell No change drops to 44%13% The Department of Justice announced a criminal probe into Chairman Powell’s testimony on a Fed building renovation, raising concerns that political pressure could force the Fed to keep rates steady to preserve independence. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/doj-launches-criminal-investigation-fed-chair-jerome-powell/story?id=129114228 Dec 10 2025 Fed minutes reveal divided views but lean towards steady rates Minutes from the December 9-10 Fed meeting showed a split among officials, with a narrow vote for a quarter-point cut but significant dissent favoring no change. This highlighted uncertainty and a cautious stance, supporting market expectations for no change in June. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Dec 10 2025 Fed minutes reveal narrow 9‑3 vote for a 25 bps cut on Dec 9‑10 No change jumps to 57%13% The Fed’s December 2025 meeting minutes showed a 9‑3 vote to cut rates by a quarter‑point, highlighting internal splits. Traders interpreted the close vote as a signal that further cuts were uncertain, pushing the market sharply toward the “No change” outcome. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b7 Dec 10 2025 Fed cuts rates by a quarter‑point at its December meeting No change drops to 44%13% The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9‑3 to cut the target federal funds rate to a range of 3.5‑3.75%, marking the third cut of the year and reinforcing expectations of continued easing. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/jobs-report-expected-show-uptick-hiring-fed-cuts/story?id=129013718 Dec 10 2025 Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps amid labor market concerns No change jumps to 48%7% At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points for the third time in 2025, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market despite inflation remaining above target. The decision was close, with a 9-3 vote, highlighting internal divisions and uncertainty about future moves. This supported market expectations for no further immediate cuts. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Dec 10 2025 FOMC statement confirms December 2025 rate cut 25 bps decrease jumps to 57%7% The official FOMC statement on Dec 10 2025 announced a 25‑bps cut, reinforcing the “25 bps decrease” outcome and pushing its price up before the later decline. https://seymourlakechurch.org/article/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-fomc-statement-breakdown-december-2025 Dec 10 2025 Fed cuts rates 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% amid cooling inflation 25 bps decrease drops to 44%6% The Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 25 bps in December 2025, signaling a cautious easing cycle as inflation gradually cooled but employment risks remained. This move initially boosted equity markets and shifted expectations for future cuts. https://www.redbridgedta.com/us/market-intelligence/federal-reserve-updates-2025/ Dec 10 2025 Fed cuts rates by 25 bps at December meeting 25 bps decrease drops to 41%9% The FOMC voted 9‑3 to lower the target federal funds rate by a quarter point, the first cut of the year, which shifted market odds toward a 25‑bps decrease. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-442de589de9b99bb811f76e402b00948 Dec 10 2025 U.S. inflation rises to 2.8% in November, dampening hopes for a rate cut No change drops to 44%13% Core CPI increased to 2.8% YoY, signalling persistent price pressures and leading market participants to anticipate the Fed would keep rates unchanged. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-consumers-ac538fd750b4622ee7fa439ef8021783 Dec 10 2025 Justice Department ends criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell No change surges to 62%18% The DOJ’s decision to drop its investigation removed a major political risk, leading traders to expect the Fed to maintain its current stance, which lifted the No‑change contract from 44 % to 62 % over the next week. https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-investigation-powell-justice-department-28d04cc0d99cda25cea69931f65e25d3 Dec 10 2025 Fed officials debate a third quarter‑point rate cut at December meeting No change jumps to 84%13% Minutes released showed a split vote (9‑3) on a quarter‑point cut, highlighting internal dissent and suggesting the cut could be fragile, which nudged the market toward No change. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Dec 10 2025 Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid divided officials 25 bps decrease jumps to 55%5% At the December 9-10 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, the third cut in 2025, but the decision was closely contested with dissenters favoring no change or a larger cut. This highlighted uncertainty about the Fed's next moves and influenced market expectations for the June 2026 meeting, initially supporting the possibility of rate cuts. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Dec 10 2025 Fed Beige Book Shows Stubborn Inflation Ahead of Year‑End The first price point in the data set (57 % for “No change”) coincides with the release of the December 2025 Federal Reserve Beige Book, which highlighted persistent inflation and kept the market betting on a hold. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202512.htm Dec 10 2025 Fed cuts federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.5-3.75% 25 bps decrease plunges to 1%49% The FOMC voted 9-3 to cut rates by 25 basis points, the third consecutive reduction, lowering the target range to 3.5% to 3.75%. This dovish move initially boosted the 25 bps decrease option but market expectations shifted as only one cut was projected for 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.htmlhttps://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/fed-meeting-december-2025 Dec 10 2025 Fed minutes show officials in tight split over December rate cut 25 bps decrease drops to 50%7% The minutes revealed that some members who supported the rate cut indicated the decision was finely balanced, reflecting the Fed's internal disagreement about future policy. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/30/fed-minutes-december-2025.html Dec 10 2025 Federal Reserve restarts Treasury security purchases 25 bps decrease drops to 50%7% The Fed announced it would resume buying Treasury securities, a move designed to support the banking system and prevent a significant decline in reserves. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html Dec 10 2025 Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 bps amid internal dissent No change drops to 35%7% At the December 9-10, 2025 meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points in a 9-3 vote, reflecting divisions within the committee about inflation and labor market risks. This decision influenced market expectations by signaling cautious easing but with uncertainty about future moves. https://apnews.com/article/inflation-federal-reserve-jobs-economy-3c48a2e88f04b70e993020712c8684b2 Dec 10 2025 Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points amid economic uncertainty No change drops to 43%14% The Fed cut rates to a 3.5%-3.75% range in December 2025, marking the third consecutive cut amid concerns about a weakening labor market and persistent inflation. This decision set the stage for market expectations of a pause in rate changes in early 2026. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-december-2025 Dec 10 2025 Congressman Boyle criticizes Fed rate cut No change surges to 98%41% House Budget Committee Democrat Brendan F. Boyle criticized the rate cut, calling it evidence of a 'weakening job market' and a 'sorry state' of the economy. This political reaction may have contributed to market volatility. https://democrats-budget.house.gov/news/press-releases/boyle-statement-december-2025-fed-interest-rate-decision Dec 10 2025 Federal Reserve cuts rates to 3.5%-3.75%, signals cautious outlook for 2026 No change drops to 43%14% On December 10, 2025, the Fed cut the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third reduction in 2025. The decision reflected concerns about a weakening job market despite inflation remaining above target, and the Fed projected only one more quarter-point cut in 2026. This set the baseline for market expectations of limited rate changes in 2026, boosting the 'No change' outcome price. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html Dec 10 2025 Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points amid economic uncertainty 25 bps decrease drops to 42%8% The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025. This decision was driven by concerns over a slowing labor market and persistent inflation, signaling a cautious approach to support economic growth. The move set the stage for market expectations of a pause in rate changes in early 2026. https://republicandigest.com/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-amid-ongoing-inflation-pressures-january-28-2026/ Show more Comments(8,200) Top Holders Positions Activity Post Beware of external links. Newest Holders Beware of external links. https://polymarket.com/profile/0xce3d6eff48d20f6ff2cff4c4cd28ccda9602194a Cop101 (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xce3d6eff48d20f6ff2cff4c4cd28ccda9602194a) 10h ago Trending at /Poly_trending 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x333f95c0d78aebe771758eaf7a120f189bfb5a33 dacccxx (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x333f95c0d78aebe771758eaf7a120f189bfb5a33) 21.7K 50+ bps decrease 13h ago So, it should remain unchanged; bet on July. 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x8910017f9a614495ed5504d870816e5e70deeb5b Obvious-Pair (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x8910017f9a614495ed5504d870816e5e70deeb5b) 1.6K No change 18h ago 😇😉 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x6f83b72e7ed044a9e1e76f7c54d8d20383028568 yuemingxingxi (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x6f83b72e7ed044a9e1e76f7c54d8d20383028568) 2d ago where's 10bp? 1 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x2d40dda15f2af8f8749663c4170340f22ff20dba dasd898 (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x2d40dda15f2af8f8749663c4170340f22ff20dba) 3d ago lets have fun, no change fuckers 1 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x2b90f23787f83af00cfc4c577a7bcd6aed2d0b2b dmpodvoysky (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x2b90f23787f83af00cfc4c577a7bcd6aed2d0b2b) 4d ago no change 💯 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0xb0c1f75c6b5b74aac259f0d3b28e896da32a13dd Trader-polycc.cc (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xb0c1f75c6b5b74aac259f0d3b28e896da32a13dd) 8d ago With solid data support and mature analytical logic, you can always stay ahead and seize favorable opportunities in time 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0xe55ae3579d8b353a3c2e80d3d2588bd68132b982 meanshadow9010 (https://polymarket.com/profile/0xe55ae3579d8b353a3c2e80d3d2588bd68132b982) 8d ago $500 from polymarket this week alone 0 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x1af033a150d9480dfc5027811d8afaefa9376dd7 polpolarg (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x1af033a150d9480dfc5027811d8afaefa9376dd7) 10d ago easy one 1 https://polymarket.com/profile/0x2aa31ded1958d4f7f07c7b618b799287f1c20063 Deficient-Key (https://polymarket.com/profile/0x2aa31ded1958d4f7f07c7b618b799287f1c20063) 10d ago jlkjl 0 Show more comments Frequently Asked Questions What is the "Fed Decision in June?" prediction market? "Fed Decision in June?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No change" at 99%, followed by "25 bps decrease" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution. How much trading activity has "Fed Decision in June?" generated on Polymarket? As of today, "Fed Decision in June?" has generated $57.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page. How do I trade on "Fed Decision in June?"? To trade on "Fed Decision in June?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss. What are the current odds for "Fed Decision in June?"? The current frontrunner for "Fed Decision in June?" is "No change" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25 bps decrease" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges. How will "Fed Decision in June?" be resolved? The resolution rules for "Fed Decision in June?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled. Can I follow "Fed Decision in June?" without placing a trade? Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Fed Decision in June?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen. Why are Polymarket's odds for "Fed Decision in June?" considered reliable? Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $57.4 million traded on “Fed Decision in June?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page (https://polymarket.com/accuracy) on Polymarket. How do I start trading on "Fed Decision in June?"? To place your first trade on "Fed Decision in June?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works. What does a price of 99¢ for "No change" mean? On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 99¢ for "No change" in the "Fed Decision in June?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 99% chance that "No change" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 99¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 1¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0. When does the "Fed Decision in June?" market close? The "Fed Decision in June?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 17, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page. What are traders saying about "Fed Decision in June?"? The "Fed Decision in June?" market has an active community of 8,200 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades. What is Polymarket? Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Fed Decision in June?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys. View more Fed Decision in June?50+ bps decrease·Yes Buy Sell Market Yes No Amount $ • $1+$5+$10+$100 T r a d e By trading, you agree to the Terms of Use (https://polymarket.com/tos). 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