If you’re betting on a prediction market, there’s a pretty good chance you’re going to lose your money. And yet … people keep doing it. Why? A pile of new data dropped this week confirming what was already kind of obvious: most people lose money on prediction markets (https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11). In fact, just 0.1% of the users take home the vast majority of the profits! (I have been saying this for a while now (https://yourbrainonmoney.substack.com/p/the-house-is-coming-for-you), but will attempt to hold my tongue on I told you so). What’s even more ironic is many of the profitable betters on the platforms are … not even human (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-28/most-prediction-market-traders-are-losing-money-while-bots-rack-up-gains)! So why, then, do people keep betting? https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOhJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0255744f-0573-4d0f-b7e8-c47709313545_1324x838.png Part of it could be addiction (https://yourbrainonmoney.substack.com/p/gambling-is-ruining-your-life-even), but a recent survey (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/gen-z-millennials-prediction-markets.html) found that most young people (80% of Gen Zers and 75% of millennials) said they’re using prediction markets because they feel “financially behind” and believe these platforms can help them catch up faster than traditional methods. Many of them said explicitly that they want a shortcut to building wealth. This response makes some rational sense, due to our current economic moment (https://yourbrainonmoney.substack.com/p/economy-booming-not-for-you). But there’s also a psychological component here. The way we experience money changes depending on the circumstance. Losing $200 on Kalshi feels different than losing $200 to a rent hike. One feels like you played a hand and it didn't work out (i.e. you had some control over the outcome). The other feels like something was taken from you. People will often choose the $200 they actively lost over the $200 they passively lost basically every time, because human beings are optimizing for the story we get to tell ourselves about our own agency. When the world around you feels out of control, we cling to whatever control we feel like we have, even if it’s not grounded in any sort of reality. Plus, the mass advertisement campaigns and integration of prediction markets into mainstream media has normalized these platforms and idea of being able to make money off of them. Even if we can rationally understand that we’re unlikely to make a buck, the headlines of people making thousands is enough to get us to try. Keep reading for what's actually happening with oil and gas prices (maybe not what you've been told), why people are trusting a Real Housewife with their money, why everyone wants to be an influencer, and what to actually do with your money this week.